LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - The slump in oil and commodity prices accompanying the global financial crisis has pressured Russian oil and mineral firms, and even the recent price recovery has not been enough to entirely resolve worries over their debt obligations.

Below, Exclusive Analysis regional specialists Teymur Huseynov and Joanna Gorska answer questions on what investors can expect in the volatile sector.

Q - Given the fall in oil prices, will Russia's energy majors be able to meet their debt obligations? Which in particular look under threat? What recourse might foreign lenders have? Is the recent recovery in oil prices enough to get these firms out of trouble? If not, can we expect to see Kremlin activity?

A - The rapid drop in oil prices since late last year has significantly undermined Russian energy firms financials, though an increase in prices in Q2 2009 is likely to moderate this situation. All Russia's energy majors have had to scale back their expansion plans, and some are facing difficulties meeting their debt obligations. Among the worst hit are state-controlled Rosneft and Transneft (TRNF_p.RTS: Quote, Profile, Research). Rosneft's total debt is $24 billion, with roughly $7 billion due for repayment in 2009.

Transneft's total debt is $8 billion, with about $4 billion due this year. As both firms have the Kremlin's backing, default is not probable due to the state's $350 billion of foreign exchange reserves. As Russia signed a 20-year contract for oil deliveries to China (effective 2011-2030), Rosneft and Transneft both stand to receive loans of $15 billion and $10 billion respectively over the next two years, which in a way is a pre-payment for oil to be delivered by the Russians. Yet, we assess that both companies will have to scale down their ambitious expansion plans to a certain extent. Rosneft will have to focus on maintenance of current assets and development of deposits that will supply the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (VSTO) pipeline, which will transport oil to China.

Russian companies need the oil price to rise to $75 in order to start developing geographically difficult, capital and labour intensive deposits in Eastern Siberia and the continental shelf. Transneft will have to concentrate on building the VSTO pipeline at a cost of putting on hold development of the Baltic Pipeline System (BTS-2).

Russia's gas export monopoly Gazprom (GAZP.MM: Quote, Profile, Research) faces similar problems. In order to finance all its new projects (LNG initiatives, development of Yamal and Eastern Siberian deposits and the Pre-Caspian, Nord and South Stream pipelines) Gazprom would have to spend $30 billion annually for the foreseeable future. Even at times of high oil prices, Gazprom's investment programme rarely exceeded $4 billion. With $60 billion debt ($10 billion due in 2009) and exports halved because of the fall in demand, it is in no position to continue expanding. More to the point, major Russian banks' credit lines with Gazprom have reached their limits. It is possible that Gazprom will postpone development of capital-intensive Yamal and Eastern Siberian deposits and will concentrate on Shtokman, Nord Stream and South Stream projects, which are also politically significant for the Kremlin.