WRAPUP 1-Ex-Soviet economies start slow path to recovery

Wed Jul 15, 2009 3:28pm BST
 
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* Russia, Ukraine show smallest output fall in 6 months * Kazakhstan unemployment eases

* Analysts say recovery to be slow, risks remain

By Toni Vorobyova and Sabina Zawadzki

MOSCOW/KIEV, July 15 (Reuters) - The three biggest ex-Soviet economies showed signs of improvement on Wednesday, with Russia and Ukraine's industrial decline easing and Kazakh unemployment down, though analysts said the road to recovery would still be slow.

Russia's $1.7 trillion economy has been hit by the collapse in oil prices, falling demand for its exports, the flight of investors from emerging markets and a global credit crunch which has left companies struggling to refinance debt.

But data showed industrial output in Russia [ID:nMOS005481] and Ukraine [ID:nLF186699] both rose on the month in June, and the depth of the slowdown in annual terms -- 12.1 and 27.5 percent respectively -- was the smallest in six months.

Kazakhstan, also a major source of oil and gas, reported a moderation in the pace of its own output decline earlier this week, and on Wednesday it unveiled a fall in the jobless rate to 6.7 percent in the second quarter.

"We can talk about some green shoots of recovery...This kind of data only comes as confirmation of this trend," said Ivan Tchakarov, economist at Nomura. "But of course...we are starting from a very low base. So even if we see some improvement in the data, at first it is going to be very modest improvements."  Continued...

 

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