HK property: bottomed out or overinflated?

Mon Jun 1, 2009 10:36am BST
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By Donny Kwok and Parvathy Ullatil

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong real estate has shown early signs of regaining its status as hot property, with a new development getting a warm reception. But, where some experts see recovery, others see just a speculative bubble.

Last week's launch by Lake Silver, a new joint venture residential project between Sino Land (0083.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) and MTR Corp (0066.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), drew tens of thousands of prospective homebuyers despite a summer downpour -- a strong showing shortly after top lender HSBC (0005.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) slashed its savings rate to near-zero, boosting the attraction of the 4-5 percent average annual rental yield for property investments.

Hong Kong home sales between May 1-26 were close to 11,000 units, the highest since February 2008, and surprisingly strong for a traditionally slow month ahead of the school summer break.

The early signs of a potential rebound have lit a fire under major Hong Kong developer stocks. Since early March, shares of sector leaders Cheung Kong (Holdings) (0001.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) have jumped more than 70 percent, while Sino Land has nearly tripled.

BUY

"The recent strength in the property sector was an adjustment to the earlier over-pessimism," said Wong Leung-sing, director of research for Centaline Property Agency Ltd.

Like others, Wong attributed the rebound in home sales to low interest rates and a volatile stock market which have driven investors to property in search of better returns. But he said the jury was still out on whether a recovery is really underway.

"If June figures track the strong numbers in May, it's quite safe to say a market recovery is on the way," he said.  Continued...

 
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