Housing market outlook improves

Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:35pm BST
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By Jonathan Cable

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices have further to crumble but will bottom out inside a year as economists grow more optimistic about a faster upturn with interest rates remaining at record lows, a Reuters poll showed.

Average house prices are seen falling 8 percent this year, after already sinking 16 percent in 2008, but are likely to remain flat in 2010, the poll of 35 analysts at banks, investment firms and consultancies found.

Prices are seen rising just over 2 percent in 2011.

However, as gloomy as the forecasts are, they are somewhat rosier than predictions in a March poll for a 14 percent fall this year and a 4 percent fall in 2010. Since then, mortgage lenders have reported a few unexpected monthly price rises.

But not all forecasters were optimistic about next year, with Britain's largest building society, Nationwide, one of the most pessimistic on the outlook for next year.

Twenty-three of 33 said house prices would stabilise within the year, with 11 of those saying they would trough within six months. Only 2 said it would be more than two years.

"We will get a few more month-on-month negatives but it is pretty flat from here," said Alan Clarke at BNP Paribas.

Houses in the UK have long been the bedrock of consumer wealth but prices nose-dived last year, knocked by the global financial crisis. A bubble that saw average values triple over the prior 10 years burst as the key driver -- mortgage lending -- dried up.  Continued...

 
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