UPDATE 2-Mexico sees oil output slide continuing in 2010

* Finance ministry sees oil exports falling 18 pct in 2010

* Export fall implies output as low as 2.475 mln bpd

* Global oil price recovery seen modest in 2010 (Recasts, adds government forecast of domestic crude oil demand)

By Robert Campbell

MEXICO CITY, April 2 (Reuters) - Mexico's oil exports could slide by 18 percent in 2010, implying that crude production could fall below 2.5 million bpd next year, the finance ministry said in the latest gloomy report on the sector.

In a report delivered to Congress on Wednesday night, the ministry estimated oil exports would drop to 1.125 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2010 from 1.370 million bpd forecast for this year.

With no major additions to domestic refining capacity forecast for 2010, the projection implies that crude oil production will fall by up to 245,000 bpd in 2010 to levels not seen since the late 1980s.

The finance ministry report did not elaborate on the reason for the expected sharp drop in crude oil exports in 2010, but it comes against worries among industry watchers about sliding yields at Mexico's aging Cantarell oil field.

Official forecasts of crude oil demand from domestic refineries fall far short of accounting for the large drop in exports the finance ministry expects in 2010.