Dow's bear market run spells trouble for Wall St

Wed Jul 2, 2008 11:40pm BST
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By Ellis Mnyandu

NEW YORK, July 2 (Reuters) - With the Dow sliding into a bear market on Wednesday, the dark days on Wall Street are far from over, amid record oil prices, struggling consumers and the never-ending credit crisis.

The Dow became the second major U.S. index to enter a bear market, following the Nasdaq in February. The broader S&P 500 .SPX is a little more than half a percent from the same fate.

News on the struggling economy could get much worse, with Thursday's government report on June payrolls seen as make-or-break. Any further worsening in the employment picture could stir more gloom about the health of consumers.

"I think we're seeing a capitulation of sorts and a sign that the market is really on its knees. The market needs a positive catalyst. It could be the jobs number," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist and technical analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in San Francisco.

"Crude has a knife in our back and it keeps twisting," he added.

Oil jumped to a record close of $143.57 a barrel on Wednesday. Add worries about slumping home values and a worsening corporate profit picture, and the outlook for Wall Street gets bleaker.

Based on historical patterns of bear markets, Wall Street's current slide has some ways to go before it plays out.

Since 1900, whenever the Dow has fallen into a bear market, it has on average shed 30 percent of its value for the duration of the slump. Bear markets have tended to last just over a year.  Continued...

 
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