REFILE-UPDATE 3-Rockwell Automation profit tumbles 77 percent

(Corrects to change "except" to "expect," paragraph 3)

* Q4 EPS 20 cents vs. year-earlier 87 cents

* Sets FY2010 EPS target $1.25-$1.75

* Sees weak start to FY2010, stronger second half (Adds CEO, analyst quotes)

BOSTON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK.N) said quarterly earnings tumbled 77 percent, as a lingering economic downturn prompted its industrial customers to hold off on purchasing systems that help factories run more smoothly.

The company set its initial fiscal 2010 profit forecast in a wide range that called for anything from an 11 percent rebound to a 19 percent drop.

"At this point, we would characterize business conditions as stable, but at demand levels well below the peak of the cycle," Chief Executive Officer Keith Nosbusch told analysts on a conference call on Monday. "We expect a recovery, but no one knows what the shape of the recovery will be."

The sharp drop in quarterly profit and hazy outlook may take the wind out of the sails of a stock that has sharply outperformed the industrial sector this year, analysts said.

"(Rockwell) is a short cycle business," but given its 2010 outlook, "investors will have to reconsider if it's as early cycle as they believe in bidding the shares up," Citigroup analyst Jeffrey Sprague wrote in a note to clients.