Commods returns seen strong another 2 yrs -Goldman
NEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Returns from commodities are
expected to remain strong up to another two years as prices of
key raw materials such as oil, copper and corn rise further
from supply deficits, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) said on Tuesday.
Wall Street's most-watched investment banker and commodity markets mover said it was also bullish on gold after a streak of record highs above $1,000 an ounce in the precious metal.
"For gold, the ongoing shift of central banks and governments from being net sellers of gold to net buyers in the context of declining real rates have continued to lend support to prices, with risks remaining to the upside despite recent gains, in our view," Goldman said in a research note.
"Going forward, we maintain that key commodities across the complex including oil, copper and corn, will shift into global deficits in the coming months owing to a combination of demand and supply drivers, which would likely generate substantial further price and returns upside," Goldman said.
The uptrend could continue for up to two years, with intermittent volatility, it said.
Goldman also projected returns of 17.5 percent over a 12-month period on the S&P GSCI Commodities Index .SPGSCI and recommended investors to be overweight commodities.
"We believe that the recent performance is just the beginning of strong expected commodity returns over the coming 12 to 24 months," it said.
Goldman's commodity price forecasts: Energy 3-month 6-month 12-month WTI crude /barrel CLc1 $85 $90 $95 Brent crude /barrel LCOc1 $83.50 $88.50 $93.50 RBOB gasoline /gal RBc1 $2.16 $2.40 $2.38 USGC heat. oil /gal HOc1 $2.24 $2.40 $2.57 NYMEX nat. gas/mmbtu NGc1 $6.50 $7.50 $7.50 UK NBP nat. gas/pence per therm 34.00 39.50 46.60 Industrial metals LME aluminium /tonne MAL3 $1,700 $1,720 $2,050 LME copper /tonne MCU3 $6,960 $7,080 $7,530 LME nickel /tonne MNI3 $17,420 $17,580 $18,780 LME zinc /tonne MZN3 $1,870 $1,860 $2,160 Precious metals Spot gold /ounce XAU= $960 $960 $960 Spot silver /ounce XAG= $15.60 $15.50 $16.00 Agriculture CBOT wheat /bushel Wc1 $5.00 $5.00 $5.50 CBOT soybeans /bushel Sc1 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 CBOT corn /bushel Cc1 $4.00 $4.00 $4.50 ICE cotton /lb <0#CT:> $0.60 $0.65 $0.65 ICE coffee /lb <0#KC:> $1.30 $1.35 $1.40 ICE cocoa /tonne <0#CC:> $2,700 $2,700 $2,700 ICE sugar /lb <0#SB:> $0.20 $0.17 $0.17 CME live cattle/lb LCc1 $0.85 $0.90 $1.10 CME lean hogs /lb LHC1 $0.65 $0.65 $0.80 (Reporting by Barani Krishnan; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
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