Commods returns seen strong another 2 yrs -Goldman

Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:40pm GMT
 
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 NEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Returns from commodities are
expected to remain strong up to another two years as prices of
key raw materials such as oil, copper and corn rise further
from supply deficits, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) said on Tuesday.
 Wall Street's most-watched investment banker and commodity
markets mover said it was also bullish on gold after a streak
of record highs above $1,000 an ounce in the precious metal.
 "For gold, the ongoing shift of central banks and
governments from being net sellers of gold to net buyers in the
context of declining real rates have continued to lend support
to prices, with risks remaining to the upside despite recent
gains, in our view," Goldman said in a research note.
 "Going forward, we maintain that key commodities across the
complex including oil, copper and corn, will shift into global
deficits in the coming months owing to a combination of demand
and supply drivers, which would likely generate substantial
further price and returns upside," Goldman said.
 The uptrend could continue for up to two years, with
intermittent volatility, it said.
 Goldman also projected returns of 17.5 percent over a
12-month period on the S&P GSCI Commodities Index .SPGSCI and
recommended investors to be overweight commodities.
 "We believe that the recent performance is just the
beginning of strong expected commodity returns over the coming
12 to 24 months," it said.
 Goldman's commodity price forecasts:
Energy                         3-month    6-month     12-month
WTI crude      /barrel  CLc1  $85         $90        $95
Brent crude    /barrel  LCOc1 $83.50      $88.50     $93.50
RBOB gasoline  /gal     RBc1  $2.16       $2.40      $2.38
USGC heat. oil /gal     HOc1  $2.24       $2.40      $2.57
NYMEX nat.  gas/mmbtu   NGc1  $6.50       $7.50      $7.50
UK NBP nat. gas/pence per therm 34.00       39.50      46.60
Industrial metals
LME aluminium  /tonne   MAL3  $1,700      $1,720     $2,050
LME copper     /tonne   MCU3  $6,960      $7,080     $7,530
LME nickel     /tonne   MNI3  $17,420     $17,580    $18,780
LME zinc       /tonne   MZN3  $1,870      $1,860     $2,160
Precious metals
Spot gold      /ounce   XAU=  $960        $960       $960
Spot silver    /ounce   XAG=  $15.60      $15.50     $16.00
Agriculture
CBOT wheat     /bushel  Wc1   $5.00       $5.00      $5.50
CBOT soybeans  /bushel  Sc1   $10.00      $10.00     $10.00
CBOT corn      /bushel  Cc1   $4.00       $4.00      $4.50
ICE  cotton    /lb      <0#CT:> $0.60       $0.65      $0.65
ICE  coffee    /lb      <0#KC:> $1.30       $1.35      $1.40
ICE  cocoa     /tonne   <0#CC:> $2,700      $2,700     $2,700
ICE  sugar     /lb      <0#SB:> $0.20       $0.17      $0.17
CME live cattle/lb      LCc1  $0.85       $0.90      $1.10
CME lean hogs  /lb      LHC1  $0.65       $0.65      $0.80 
  (Reporting by Barani Krishnan; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)






 

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