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TORONTO, June 11 (Reuters) - Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in a television interview on Thursday he sees a more than 50 percent chance there will be a federal election this summer, even though polls show Canadians do not want one.

The Conservative government has only a minority of the 308 seats in the House of Commons and needs the support of at least one opposition party to stay in power.

The latest issue that could end up toppling the government is its budget update, which forecasts a C$50.2 billion ($45.6 billion) deficit this year, with plans to return to surplus by the 2013-14 fiscal year. [ID:N11503330]

Two of the three opposition parties have already indicated they will not support it. An election now would be Canada's fourth in a little more than five years.

Speaking in an interview on CTV Television, Flaherty also said he knows Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has concerns about the appreciation of the Canadian dollar, "and I do too if there's a speculative element in particular with respect to the Canadian dollar".

The Canadian dollar has risen 18 percent since falling to a four-year low in March. It closed at C$1.1032 to the U.S. dollar on Thursday.

Flaherty went on to say he saw "relatively good" economic signs in Canada, including some strength in housing, better credit availability, a functioning bond market, and consumer confidence. "They show stability in the economy, and from ... stability we can move to growth," he said.

The Canadian economy, like many others, has been hard hit by the global financial crisis but it has started to show signs of improvements alongside a surge in global equities.

($1=$1.10 Canadian) (Reporting by Frank Pingue and Randall Palmer)