FX OUTLOOK-Dollar may fall as US financial woes mount

Fri Jul 11, 2008 5:00pm BST
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* Dollar likely to fall in the week ahead

* Fed's Bernanke gives testimony to Congress

* Investors await data on inflation and capital flows

NEW YORK, July 11 (Reuters) - The dollar is likely to fall in the week ahead amid ongoing turmoil in financial markets with speculation mounting the U.S. government may have to take over mortgage companies Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) if their funding problems worsen.

The government offered no hint on Friday of a bailout for Fannie and Freddie, the largest providers of financing for U.S. home loans. The government-sponsored entities are considered critical to supporting the U.S. housing market, which is currently in its worst downturn since the Great Depression.

While a housing glut and problems in the subprime mortgage lending have rattled markets for months, investors fear the systemic risk in the failure of either federally chartered agency given they either own or guarantee around $5 trillion in debt.

"The big driver recently has been risk sentiment in the market," said Steven Englander, head of G10 currency strategy at Lehman Brothers. This has "implication for all markets and FX markets are no different."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Friday his department's chief aim is to back the two mortgage giants in their "current form" and offered no hint of an imminent government bailout.  Continued...

 
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