UPDATE 2-Peru's central bank slashes 2009 GDP forecast

Fri Jun 12, 2009 10:59pm BST
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(Adds more 2010 forecasts, inflation, context)

By Teresa Cespedes

LIMA, June 12 (Reuters) - Peru's central bank cut its 2009 economic growth forecast to 3.3 percent on Friday from 5 percent previously, with the global financial crisis taking another bite out of what has been one of the world's fastest-growing economies.

The bank also trimmed its growth outlook for next year to 5.5 percent from the 6 percent forecast in March.

Prices for most metals produced in Peru, a major global exporter, have plummeted amid the global economic downturn, cutting into government revenues and cooling domestic demand.

The central bank sees a 2009 fiscal deficit of 1.8 percent of gross domestic product, deepening from its prior estimate of a 1 percent deficit. For 2010, the bank forecast a fiscal deficit of 1.7 percent of GDP, also moving away from an earlier 1 percent prediction.

Peru has posted fiscal surpluses since 2005, when it last posted a deficit.

The central bank eased its 2009 current account deficit forecast to 3.2 percent of GDP, from 3.3 percent previously. For 2010, it said it expects a current account deficit of 3.1 percent of GDP, compared with its earlier estimate of 3.3 percent of GDP.

Finally, the bank forecast Peru would post a 2009 trade surplus of $1.145 billion and a 2010 surplus of $1.013 billion.  Continued...

 
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