FACTBOX-Economic crisis is top U.S. security threat

Thu Feb 12, 2009 9:07pm GMT
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WASHINGTON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - The global economic crisis is the top near-term U.S. security concern and one in four countries have experienced at least some instability because of it, U.S. intelligence agencies reported on Thursday.

Following are some other highlights from the Director of National Intelligence's annual threat report:

* The risk to U.S. strategic interests will increase if economic recovery does not begin soon. Much of sub-Saharan Africa, the former Soviet Union and Latin America lack the financial resources to cope with the downturn.

* The downturn could lead to a rise in economic nationalism and reduced military and logistical support from allies. It could also erode the United States' economic leadership because the crisis originated here.

* Al Qaeda is less effective than it was a year ago, with the loss of key leaders and significant public criticism of its violent tactics in the Muslim world. And the radical Islamic group is now under greater pressure in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region it calls home.

But al Qaeda is still dangerous and continues to plot attacks against Europe and the United States. Its affiliate in northern Africa remains robust and the threat is likely to increase in eastern Africa.

* Though hard-line Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's prospects for reelection are "less than certain," persuading Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions will continue to be difficult. Confrontation with Israel looms over the issue.

* Extremists in Iraq have largely been sidelined by U.S. and Iraqi government forces, along with dwindling public tolerance for their violent tactics. Threats to continued progress include disputes over internal boundaries, resentment of the central government, outside support for insurgent groups, and declining oil prices.

* Security in southern, eastern and northwestern Afghanistan has deteriorated as the government's legitimacy has eroded. Improvement there is impossible until Pakistan gains control of its border regions.   Continued...

 
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