LATAM WEEKAHEAD-Rate cuts likely, retail sales could show gains

Sun Jun 14, 2009 11:00pm BST
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By Daniel Bases

NEW YORK, June 14 (Reuters) - Central banks in Chile, Colombia, and Mexico are likely to continue their interest rate cutting programs while reports could show some slight improvements in retail sales.

On the monetary policy front, Chile on Tuesday will be the first to make its decision. The latest Reuters poll of economists forecasts a 50 basis points cut in Chile's benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.75 percent. [ID:nN126710]

Mexico's central bank will decide on Friday whether it will maintain an aggressive interest rate cutting pace or not. Economists at both Barclays Capital and Morgan Stanley forecast a 50 basis point reduction to 4.75 percent.

"With the economy not giving signals of recovery, a solid 50 basis point cut seems likely," Barclays wrote clients, while Morgan Stanley said: "Banxico signaled slowdown from -75bps pace of late."

In Brazil, on Thursday, investors will get the latest read on the central bank's rationale for cutting interest rates by 100 basis points when the Copom minutes are released. The majority of economists had thought the maximum was going to be a 75 basis points cut.

Retails sales data will give insight into domestic demand strength.

First up on Monday is Mexican retailers group ANTAD reporting May retail sales, followed on Tuesday with Brazilian retail sales for April.

"Retail sales should rebound sharply year-on-year, helped by the Easter holiday, but we expect a weak month-on-month number," said Barclays who predict a 6.5 percent year-on-year rise.  Continued...

 
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