ANALYSIS-Chile's government battered by protests, polls
By Simon Gardner
SANTIAGO, July 14 (Reuters) - Students and teachers clash with riot police in clouds of tear gas, a minister is sacked by Congress over a funds scandal and soaring inflation stirs anger -- President Michelle Bachelet's government is in trouble.
Buoyed by windfall copper revenues, Chile has long been lauded as Latin America's most stable democracy and it has one of the region's strongest economies.
But many Chileans feel the center-left "Concertacion" coalition that has ruled since the right-wing dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet ended in 1990 is now out of touch and failing to help create opportunities for the poor.
With Bachelet's approval ratings falling and a center-right billionaire leading polls ahead of next year's presidential election, the coalition risks losing its grip on power.
"It is in danger," said Patricio Navia, a political analyst at New York University and Santiago's Diego Portales University. "The Concertacion's problem is precisely the fact that the problems people are facing are new."
"It is no longer the poverty problems of the 1980s, but rather problems of spending power," he added. "The poor have seen the middle class, the promised land. And now they're worried the promised land is going to disappear."
Clasping a mask to fend off tear gas as a street protest rages, 18-year-old electrical engineering student Jaime Fernandez joined hundreds of youths and teachers at the latest anti-government protest in the capital Santiago to rail against education reform they say marginalizes the poor.
"I feel enormously cheated by the Concertacion," said Fernandez as a fellow protester drenched by a police water cannon lay on the capital's main artery with a head injury.
"Education in this country is a joke," he added. "If you are poor, (the government) says that if your child has a bad education, it's your fault."
MISMANAGEMENT, SCANDALS
On top of sometimes violent protests by teachers and students, rising crime, inflation and a botched revamp of the capital's bus system has also angered voters.
Copper subcontract miners have added to Bachelet's woes with strikes called to complain that they are not seeing enough of Chile's mining profits.
Bachelet's government has also been rocked by scandals. Her education minister was sacked by Congress for failing to prevent financial abuses on her watch.
The ruling coalition has a legislative majority but is hamstrung by infighting and was unable to protect the minister.
Bachelet's approval rating hit 40 percent in June according to one poll, a far cry from the 52.6 percent rating she had when she took power in March 2006. Crime, education and health were the main gripes.
Chileans are increasingly worried about inflation, which hit 17-year highs in June amid rising food and fuel prices. The central bank has responded by raising interest rates to their highest levels in nearly a decade.
With municipal elections later this year and a presidential election looming in December 2009, Bachelet has promised to give cash handouts to pensioners and improve health and education services.
But analysts say the government needs to show more fiscal discipline as economic growth slows.
"Public spending in Chile has not been this out of step with economic growth since the Asia Crisis (of 1998)," said Raphael Bergoeing, chief economist at Banchile.
"Unfortunately, it is crowned by a political environment which is the most complex in 15 years."
A survey by leading pollster CEP said last week that billionaire and center-right opposition leader Sebastian Pinera, who lost to Bachelet in a run-off vote in 2006, would easily win a presidential election if it were held now.
Poor coordination between Bachelet's ministers has created a sense of weak leadership.
"There is much more disagreement with the president, ministers take decisions that she doesn't appear to be behind," said Alfredo Joignant, a politics professor at the University of Chile. "One doesn't know who is really running the show. It gives the impression the Concertacion is its own worst enemy."
Navia said the center-left coalition's long period of dominance could soon be over. "The Concertacion needs to show it is capable of solving the new problems, or it will lose the elections next year." (Editing by Kieran Murray)
SANTIAGO, July 14 (Reuters) - Students and teachers clash with riot police in clouds of tear gas, a minister is sacked by Congress over a funds scandal and soaring inflation stirs anger -- President Michelle Bachelet's government is in trouble.
Buoyed by windfall copper revenues, Chile has long been lauded as Latin America's most stable democracy and it has one of the region's strongest economies.
But many Chileans feel the center-left "Concertacion" coalition that has ruled since the right-wing dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet ended in 1990 is now out of touch and failing to help create opportunities for the poor.
With Bachelet's approval ratings falling and a center-right billionaire leading polls ahead of next year's presidential election, the coalition risks losing its grip on power.
"It is in danger," said Patricio Navia, a political analyst at New York University and Santiago's Diego Portales University. "The Concertacion's problem is precisely the fact that the problems people are facing are new."
"It is no longer the poverty problems of the 1980s, but rather problems of spending power," he added. "The poor have seen the middle class, the promised land. And now they're worried the promised land is going to disappear."
Clasping a mask to fend off tear gas as a street protest rages, 18-year-old electrical engineering student Jaime Fernandez joined hundreds of youths and teachers at the latest anti-government protest in the capital Santiago to rail against education reform they say marginalizes the poor.
"I feel enormously cheated by the Concertacion," said Fernandez as a fellow protester drenched by a police water cannon lay on the capital's main artery with a head injury.
"Education in this country is a joke," he added. "If you are poor, (the government) says that if your child has a bad education, it's your fault."
MISMANAGEMENT, SCANDALS
On top of sometimes violent protests by teachers and students, rising crime, inflation and a botched revamp of the capital's bus system has also angered voters.
Copper subcontract miners have added to Bachelet's woes with strikes called to complain that they are not seeing enough of Chile's mining profits.
Bachelet's government has also been rocked by scandals. Her education minister was sacked by Congress for failing to prevent financial abuses on her watch.
The ruling coalition has a legislative majority but is hamstrung by infighting and was unable to protect the minister.
Bachelet's approval rating hit 40 percent in June according to one poll, a far cry from the 52.6 percent rating she had when she took power in March 2006. Crime, education and health were the main gripes.
Chileans are increasingly worried about inflation, which hit 17-year highs in June amid rising food and fuel prices. The central bank has responded by raising interest rates to their highest levels in nearly a decade.
With municipal elections later this year and a presidential election looming in December 2009, Bachelet has promised to give cash handouts to pensioners and improve health and education services.
But analysts say the government needs to show more fiscal discipline as economic growth slows.
"Public spending in Chile has not been this out of step with economic growth since the Asia Crisis (of 1998)," said Raphael Bergoeing, chief economist at Banchile.
"Unfortunately, it is crowned by a political environment which is the most complex in 15 years."
A survey by leading pollster CEP said last week that billionaire and center-right opposition leader Sebastian Pinera, who lost to Bachelet in a run-off vote in 2006, would easily win a presidential election if it were held now.
Poor coordination between Bachelet's ministers has created a sense of weak leadership.
"There is much more disagreement with the president, ministers take decisions that she doesn't appear to be behind," said Alfredo Joignant, a politics professor at the University of Chile. "One doesn't know who is really running the show. It gives the impression the Concertacion is its own worst enemy."
Navia said the center-left coalition's long period of dominance could soon be over. "The Concertacion needs to show it is capable of solving the new problems, or it will lose the elections next year." (Editing by Kieran Murray)
© Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved.
Sister speaks to jailed journalist