LATAM WEEKAHEAD-Investors on guard for possible FX intervention

Sun Nov 15, 2009 5:15pm GMT
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By Walter Brandimarte

NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Latin American investors will be on the lookout for possible government interventions in the foreign exchange market this week, as the appreciation of regional currencies increasingly threatens exporters.

Brazil could soon impose additional measures to curb the appreciation of its currency, the real (BRBY: Quote, Profile, Research), as it nears the psychological level of 1.7 per U.S. dollar -- about the same level the real was trading when the government imposed a 2 percent financial tax on foreign inflows last month.

"We see very high odds that the authorities will introduce further measures aimed at curbing exchange rate appreciation," said Enrique Alvarez, Latin America strategist for IDEAglobal in New York, citing the transfer of the economist Emilio Garofalo, a currency specialist, from the Brazilian central bank to the Finance Ministry.

Garofalo's move, he said, was "viewed by many as preceding further intervention in the exchange rate."

In Chile, both Central Bank President Jose De Gregorio and Finance Minister Andres Velasco have warned that the government may act soon to tame the strength of the peso CLP=CL, which has been trading at 15-month highs. [ID:nN12419196]

Also on investors' radar will be the approval of Mexico's 2010 budget expenditures over the weekend and how ratings agencies will react to the final budget.

Any dilution of the government's plan to cut expenditures by 74.2 billion pesos, or 0.6 percent of gross domestic product, could have a critical impact on the agencies' decision on whether to downgrade Mexico's ratings, analysts said.

On the data front, Latin America will have a relatively light schedule this week. The following are some key data points that investors will watch:  Continued...

 

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