U.S. to stay course on Iran policy

By Sue Pleming - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Tehran and Washington opened 2008 with a torrent of rhetoric but U.S. officials and Iran experts say there is little chance of a switch in tactics away from sanctions toward incentives or military action.

President George W. Bush has just a year left in office and three senior U.S. officials said there were no immediate moves to tweak U.S. strategy, which aims to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

The plan is to continue to try to contain Tehran's military activities with a U.S. presence in the Gulf and incrementally impose more sanctions, both unilaterally and through the United Nations, for as long as Iran refuses to give up nuclear work.

"We believe that the current policy line is the appropriate one given the reality of Iranian behaviors and non-responsiveness to the pressures the international community has put on them on the nuclear issue," said a senior U.S. official, who asked not to be named.

After Iranian speed boats harassed a U.S. warship in the Strait of Hormuz this month, Bush, on a trip to the Middle East, warned of serious consequences if it happened again.

But there is little mention of any U.S. military action even though a government audit this week questioned the efficacy of sanctions and concluded it was hard to determine if they were working, pointing to increased investment in Iran.

The United States cut diplomatic ties with Iran in 1980 and relations have been strained ever since, currently over the nuclear program and what Washington sees as meddling in Iraq.

A U.S. intelligence estimate last month said Iran halted its nuclear weapons efforts in 2003, prompting talk that Washington could now offer some economic "sweeteners" -- particularly as veto-wielding U.N. Security Council members Russia and China intensified their stalling on new sanctions.