Mexico's Modelo seen embracing InBev bid for Bud

By Chris Aspin

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico's No. 1 brewer, Modelo, run by a family not known for risk taking, is expected to emerge from InBev's $46.3 billion (23.6 billion pound) takeover battle for Anheuser-Busch with only one major change -- a new partner.

Modelo, already 50 percent owned by Anheuser, is expected to block any attempt by the brewer of Budweiser to buy full control as a defensive move. Neither does it want to take on billions of dollars of debt to buy back its stake in the St. Louis-based giant.

Analysts say the most likely outcome is that Modelo, which makes Corona beer, will embrace InBev's bid for Anheuser and hope the Belgian brewer proves to be a more dynamic and innovative partner than the biggest U.S. brewer.

"At the end of the day, if InBev buys Anheuser, Modelo is going to play safe. OK, now I don't have Anheuser causing me grief. I have InBev and everything remains the same," said Ixe brokerage analyst Marco Reyes.

Modelo CEO Carlos Fernandez told Reuters two weeks ago -- before InBev launched its $65 a share bid for Anheuser -- that he expected his company, which has no debt and more than $1 billion in cash, to remain in Mexican hands.

Fernandez's uncle and family patriarch, Antonino Fernandez, controls Modelo's family voting trust, which analysts say is bent on remaining independent, despite consolidation in the global beer industry and the rich pickings from selling.

One theory is that Anheuser-Busch Cos (BUD.N) could dodge the InBev INTB.BR bid by buying 100 percent of Grupo Modelo (GMODELOC.MX), which would make its combined holdings too expensive to take over given the current global financial turmoil.

But analysts do not see that happening.