Intel's Moore muses on end of technology maxim

By Duncan Martell

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Gordon Moore, the unassuming billionaire co-founder of Intel Corp, says the end of the technology maxim bearing his name is drawing to a close, perhaps as soon as 10 years from now.

Moore's Law -- based on the San Francisco native's observation in 1965 that the number of transistors on a computer chip doubles roughly every two years -- has for more than 40 years dictated the pace of change in the technology industry.

To be sure, many, including Moore himself, have predicted the law's demise numerous times before. But, now, as Intel and the rest of the industry have made features on chips so small, they're running out of space to cram in more transistors and bumping against the laws of physics.

"Another decade, a decade and a half, I think we'll hit something fairly fundamental" that would render the continuing pace of Moore's law untenable, Moore said on Tuesday at Intel's twice-annual technical conference, now in its 10th year.

Transistors are the tiny switches that process the ones and zeros that are the foundation of digital computing, and now number in the hundreds of millions on modern microprocessors.

Intel in January announced what it hailed as the biggest breakthrough in the basic building blocks of semiconductors in more than 40 years. The world's biggest chipmaker is now using an element called hafnium and metal gates in its chipmaking processes, which will let Moore's Law continue for now.

As Moore, 78, who founded Intel in 1968, made his way on stage to chat with radio talkshow host Moira Gunn, the crowd bestowed on him a standing ovation.

Current Intel Chief Executive Paul Otellini, also a San Francisco native, laughed and applauded in the front row as the affable Moore recounted some of Intel's early days.