Weak economy seen buoying Democrats in election

By Andrea Hopkins - Analysis

CINCINNATI (Reuters) - U.S. gasoline prices may have declined a bit, but economic gloom among voters is not expected to lift before the November presidential election -- hindering Republican chances to hold on to the White House.

Fresh data showing sharply higher inflation and the slowest start rate in home building in more than 17 years highlighted economic woes on Tuesday, and analysts said there is little doubt the accumulation of bad news bolsters voter appetite for a change in Washington.

That gives Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama a big advantage over Republican John McCain, said Michael Walden, an economics professor at North Carolina State University.

"To the extent that the economy gets worse, that will help Sen. Obama because people will view him as, in the well-worn phrase, the 'agent of change,'" Walden said.

A bad economy is never good for political incumbents. After seven years under Republican President George W. Bush, voters are glum about the state of the U.S. economy, weary of high prices, rising unemployment and a housing and credit crisis.

"People are overwhelmingly saying that the economy is what matters this election," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The economy is the single most important issue for 52 percent of likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac national poll released on Tuesday, far outnumbering the 16 percent who are most concerned about the war in Iraq.

Among voters who list the economy as their top concern, 49 percent prefer Obama and 41 percent McCain, the poll showed. Among respondents overall, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 42 percent among likely voters.