$50 or $100? Experts mull next big oil milestone

By Matthew Robinson

NEW YORK (Reuters) - With oil storming to new highs over $80 a barrel this week, energy experts are divided over whether prices will crash back to $50 before they break

$100.

Expectations that global supplies will struggle to keep pace with demand as the Northern Hemisphere gears up for the winter cold, and worries over potential hurricane disruptions, have sent oil to new peaks over the past six trading sessions.

But analysts are debating whether oil prices have much upside left after quadrupling since 2002, with bulls arguing that strong economic growth means a supply squeeze is imminent and bears saying a seasonal demand drop will deflate prices.

"The trend is up, and if your supplies are 85 million barrels per day (bpd) globally, and you look at what demand is predicted to be for the fourth quarter, it is 88 million bpd," Texas oilman and investor T. Boone Pickens said.

"I don't think you'll hit $100 this year unless you have some kind of geopolitical event that causes that to happen, but you're going to get to $100 at some point."

U.S. oil climbed to a fresh high of $82.51 a barrel on Wednesday after a fourth drop in weekly U.S. crude inventories reignited supply fears and the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate cut raised expectations of continued strong demand.

"On a pure fundamentals basis the oil market is likely to see $100 long before it again sees $50, whether from a weather- or a politically engendered spike or a ratcheting up from supply versus demand fundamentals," said Edward L. Morse, Chief Energy Economist for Lehman Brothers.