RPT-US spring nuclear refueling seen lowest in a decade

(Repeats to fix table link)

By Scott DiSavino and Joe Silha

NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - The number of U.S. nuclear
reactors expected to shut this spring for planned refueling
will likely be the lowest in at least a decade, which could
weigh on natural gas prices, already hovering near six-year
lows, traders said on Friday.

At the height of the spring 2009 season in mid-April, just
15,200 megawatts will likely be out, compared with about 22,900
MW out last year, which would be the fewest megawatts shut for
spring refueling since the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
started posting outages on its website in 1999.

For a table of U.S. nuclear outages, please click on
[ID:nN20507040]

Electricity traders said the refueling season would be
light due to scheduling reasons. The 104 power reactors in the
United States, which are capable of generating about 100,266
MW, or enough to power about 80 million homes, routinely shut
every 18 to 24 months for refueling.

"Lower outages should mean less gas consumed in an already
oversupplied market," an East Coast electricity trader said.

Natural gas traders follow nuclear outages closely because
plants burning gas make up much of the missing nuclear
generation during periods of high demand.

It takes about 160 million to 170 million cubic feet of
natural gas per day to generate about 1,000 MW of electricity,
so reduction in outages could trim about 1 billion cubic feet a
day, or 1.7 percent, from total spring gas demand.

Since the NRC started its website postings, spring outages
peaked at 29,300 MW in 1999 and bottomed at 16,100 MW in 2004,
while autumn outages peaked at 26,100 MW in 2000 and bottomed
at 12,300 MW in 2004.

The five-year average is 20,000 MW out for the spring
(2004-2008) peak and 19,000 MW out for the fall (2004-2008)
peak.

Gas prices, pressured by rising production and
recession-related cuts in industrial demand, are hovering near
six-year lows in the $4 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu) area, which is below the break-even for coal at $50 a
ton, according to analysts.

While gas demand could get a boost as cheap prices force
some utilities to switch away from coal, a light nuclear
maintenance season could partially offset any gains, gas
traders said.

In its latest short-term energy outlook, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) said lower natural gas
delivered prices in some markets particularly the Southeast are
expected to encourage power companies to switch some generation
from coal to gas.

Power producers, like American Electric Power Co Inc
(AEP.N) and Duke Energy Corp (DUK.N), now face a situation
where gas competes with coal in marginal units and they are
reportedly starting to reduce coal burn within their network,
while putting some new highly efficient gas-fired power plants
on stream for baseload power generation, according to a Banc of
America Securities-Merrill Lynch research report.

EIA expects gas used to generate power this year to grow by
0.4 percent.
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino and Joe Silha; Editing by
Marguerita Choy)