U.S. sees high oil prices reducing long-term demand

By Tom Doggett

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - World oil demand will soar over the next two decades but more slowly than experts expected a year ago because high crude prices will take a toll, the U.S. government's top energy forecasting agency said on Wednesday.

World energy consumption will grow 50 percent by 2030, the Energy Information Administration said in its new annual long-term forecast. It said demand from developing countries would surge 85 percent compared with a 19 percent increase in industrialized countries.

The EIA also said consuming countries will rely more on OPEC because of low production elsewhere.

"We see strong growth in energy consumption," said Guy Caruso, who heads the Energy Department's forecasting arm. "The vast share, majority of that growth will be in the emerging markets," particularly in China and India, he said.

Caruso said most growth in energy demand will be in transportation fuels as consumers in developing countries purchase more vehicles.

World oil demand in 2010 will average 89.2 million barrels per day, the agency predicted, dropping its forecast by 1.5 million bpd from last year due to higher prices.

In China, the oil use forecast was cut 600,000 bpd to 8.8 million bpd. That still would be up 10 percent from demand of 8 million bpd forecast for this year.

The EIA forecast for India's oil demand in 2010 was unchanged at 2.7 million bpd.