SCENARIOS-Possible outcomes of Honduran political crisis
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TEGUCIGALPA, June 29 (Reuters) - Honduras was rocked by its worst political crisis in decades and internationally isolated after the army ousted leftist President Manuel Zelaya and former Congress head Roberto Micheletti was named interim president.
Sunday's dawn ouster came after Zelaya angered the courts, Congress and the military with his push to extend presidential terms.
Following are possible scenarios on what could develop:
MICHELETTI STAYS IN POWER UNTIL AFTER NOV. ELECTIONS
Micheletti's supporters, from the political and business elite to the army and courts, are intent on him retaining control though a Nov. 29 presidential election and into January when the poll winner is due to take power.
This could happen if the small street protests over the coup wilt and the United States and other countries believe they have few options other than sanctions or cutting economic aid, which so far Washington has held off from doing.
Zelaya's popularity ratings had dropped to around 30 percent in recent polls, as many disliked his shift to the left under the influence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Protests on the streets of Honduras against his ouster have only numbered up to a couple of thousand people.
It would be much easier for foreign countries to demand Micheletti stand down if he were an army general, but counting in his favor, Micheletti is a civilian veteran of Zelaya's Liberal Party and he was chosen on Sunday by a near-unanimous Congress vote.
Micheletti, who has already told foreign countries not to interfere in Honduras, could take a swing to the right and crush opponents.
HONDURAS BOWS TO FOREIGN PRESSURE AND REINSTATES ZELAYA
The military coup has left Honduras completely isolated and condemnation of the operation has been fierce from Chavez and other left-wing governments to the United States, the European Union and international bodies.
The Honduran courts and military will be loath to back down but there is a chance that intense and prolonged international pressure will force them to do so.
So far, no foreign government has said it will recognize Micheletti as president, and the Organization of American States is demanding Zelaya be immediately and unconditionally reinstated.
U.S. President Barack Obama, who is being tested with his first big crisis in a region that Washington has historically interfered in heavily, said on Monday it would be a "terrible precedent" if the coup were not reversed.
But the fact that many politicians from Zelaya's Liberal Party came out against him in recent weeks, opposing his push for constitutional change, weighs against his chances of a comeback.
MODERATE LEFTISTS NEGOTIATE EARLY ELECTION
Zelaya's term was already due to run out in early 2010, so another possibility is that moderate left-wing Latin American presidents such as Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Chile's Michelle Bachelet weigh in to persuade Honduras to hold an early presidential election as a compromise solution.
Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, who won a Nobel Peace Prize for trying to end political violence in Central America in the 1980s, is another possible broker.
If that were to happen, the current main hopefuls for the November election -- the ruling party's Elvin Santos and the opposition National Party's Porfirio Lobo -- could be likely candidates.
This scenario could involve Zelaya being allowed back before the early election to rule for a short period.
TENSIONS BOIL OVER INTO VIOLENCE, DRIVEN BY CHAVEZ
The pro-Zelaya protesters in Honduras have limited power on their own, but backing by Chavez could provide the clout to drive more serious instability. Chavez has said the coup should be defeated by the Honduran people but with Venezuelan support.
The demonstrators, some masked and wielding metal bars, have burned tires, sealed off the presidential palace with barricades and defaced it with pro-Zelaya graffiti. So far, troops have kept to firing tear gas on demonstrators, but they are heavily armed and it could take something as simple as a protester breaking into the palace to trigger a violent scuffle.
Honduras does not have a recent tradition of large left-wing guerrilla insurgencies like El Salvador and Nicaragua had in the latter part of the Cold War.
Tensions are running high with many Zelaya supporters cowering at home, scared of possible violence. Army tanks and helicopters are at the protest scene and some shops have reported panic-buying of food and bottled water.
On a more serious level, Chavez has put his troops on alert, and he would have a friendly base in neighboring Nicaragua if he decided to launch a military offensive on Honduras.
(Writing by Catherine Bremer, Editing by Sandra Maler)
TEGUCIGALPA, June 29 (Reuters) - Honduras was rocked by its worst political crisis in decades and internationally isolated after the army ousted leftist President Manuel Zelaya and former Congress head Roberto Micheletti was named interim president.
Sunday's dawn ouster came after Zelaya angered the courts, Congress and the military with his push to extend presidential terms.
Following are possible scenarios on what could develop:
MICHELETTI STAYS IN POWER UNTIL AFTER NOV. ELECTIONS
Micheletti's supporters, from the political and business elite to the army and courts, are intent on him retaining control though a Nov. 29 presidential election and into January when the poll winner is due to take power.
This could happen if the small street protests over the coup wilt and the United States and other countries believe they have few options other than sanctions or cutting economic aid, which so far Washington has held off from doing.
Zelaya's popularity ratings had dropped to around 30 percent in recent polls, as many disliked his shift to the left under the influence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Protests on the streets of Honduras against his ouster have only numbered up to a couple of thousand people.
It would be much easier for foreign countries to demand Micheletti stand down if he were an army general, but counting in his favor, Micheletti is a civilian veteran of Zelaya's Liberal Party and he was chosen on Sunday by a near-unanimous Congress vote.
Micheletti, who has already told foreign countries not to interfere in Honduras, could take a swing to the right and crush opponents.
HONDURAS BOWS TO FOREIGN PRESSURE AND REINSTATES ZELAYA
The military coup has left Honduras completely isolated and condemnation of the operation has been fierce from Chavez and other left-wing governments to the United States, the European Union and international bodies.
The Honduran courts and military will be loath to back down but there is a chance that intense and prolonged international pressure will force them to do so.
So far, no foreign government has said it will recognize Micheletti as president, and the Organization of American States is demanding Zelaya be immediately and unconditionally reinstated.
U.S. President Barack Obama, who is being tested with his first big crisis in a region that Washington has historically interfered in heavily, said on Monday it would be a "terrible precedent" if the coup were not reversed.
But the fact that many politicians from Zelaya's Liberal Party came out against him in recent weeks, opposing his push for constitutional change, weighs against his chances of a comeback.
MODERATE LEFTISTS NEGOTIATE EARLY ELECTION
Zelaya's term was already due to run out in early 2010, so another possibility is that moderate left-wing Latin American presidents such as Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Chile's Michelle Bachelet weigh in to persuade Honduras to hold an early presidential election as a compromise solution.
Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, who won a Nobel Peace Prize for trying to end political violence in Central America in the 1980s, is another possible broker.
If that were to happen, the current main hopefuls for the November election -- the ruling party's Elvin Santos and the opposition National Party's Porfirio Lobo -- could be likely candidates.
This scenario could involve Zelaya being allowed back before the early election to rule for a short period.
TENSIONS BOIL OVER INTO VIOLENCE, DRIVEN BY CHAVEZ
The pro-Zelaya protesters in Honduras have limited power on their own, but backing by Chavez could provide the clout to drive more serious instability. Chavez has said the coup should be defeated by the Honduran people but with Venezuelan support.
The demonstrators, some masked and wielding metal bars, have burned tires, sealed off the presidential palace with barricades and defaced it with pro-Zelaya graffiti. So far, troops have kept to firing tear gas on demonstrators, but they are heavily armed and it could take something as simple as a protester breaking into the palace to trigger a violent scuffle.
Honduras does not have a recent tradition of large left-wing guerrilla insurgencies like El Salvador and Nicaragua had in the latter part of the Cold War.
Tensions are running high with many Zelaya supporters cowering at home, scared of possible violence. Army tanks and helicopters are at the protest scene and some shops have reported panic-buying of food and bottled water.
On a more serious level, Chavez has put his troops on alert, and he would have a friendly base in neighboring Nicaragua if he decided to launch a military offensive on Honduras.
(Writing by Catherine Bremer, Editing by Sandra Maler)
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