Bank seen cutting rates in June

By Jonathan Cable

LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England is expected to hold off on cutting interest rates from 5.0 percent until June as it battles to control high inflation in the face of a flagging economy and financial turmoil, a Reuters poll shows.

In a poll carried out April 29-May 1, 45 of 65 economists predicted rates would fall to 4.75 percent by the June meeting, with 40 of those predicting the cut would come in June.

Asked to assess probabilities, economists gave a median 70 percent likelihood that rates would fall by June and a 95 percent probability they would drop by the year-end. This compares with 65 percent and 95 percent respectively in an April 10 poll.

The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points in April after making a similar cut in February. These followed a reduction in December also by 25 basis points, the first cut in two years.

Median forecasts showed the Bank Rate dropping to 4.75 percent by mid-year, to 4.5 percent by September, and then once more to 4.25 percent early next year.

A separate Reuters on April 23 poll showed medians at 4.75 percent by June and then at 4.5 percent from September until June 2009. This suggests economists now believe the bank will have to act further and for longer to bolster the economy.

Minutes from the bank's April meeting, released last week, showed the first three-way split amongst policymakers in almost two years. Six Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members voted for a quarter percentage-point cut, one for a half-point cut and two wanted to hold rates.

"The MPC is divided and many members are reluctant to cut rates. But, given the deepening weakness of the UK housing market, and the growing pressures facing the UK banks, a small cut in rates is clearly needed in May," said David Kern at BCC. "But the decision is very finely balanced, and we would not be entirely surprised if the MPC would prefer to wait for at least another month."