Bank seen cutting interest rates twice in 2008

Tue Dec 18, 2007 1:24pm GMT
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By Jonathan Cable

LONDON (Reuters) - UK economic growth will slow even more next year than thought just a month ago as the housing market cools and consumers grapple with debt, leading to two more Bank of England interest rate cuts, a Reuters poll shows.

The monthly poll of 49 economists, taken December 12-18, showed economic growth slowing to 1.9 percent in 2008, from 3.1 percent in 2007, but picking up in 2009 to 2.2 percent.

This is the fourth successive month when growth forecasts have been revised downwards. A month ago, economists had forecast 2008 growth of 2.0 percent, in October 2.1 percent, in September 2.3 percent and in August 2.4 percent.

Inflation is seen at 2.1 percent in 2008, above the BoE's 2.0 percent target before dropping to 2.0 percent in 2009, allowing limited scope for rate cuts, the poll showed.

"Inflation pressures are likely to prevent the MPC from cutting rates aggressively into accommodative territory going forward," said Alan Castle, UK economist at Lehman Brothers, who is forecasting two 25 basis point cuts by mid-2008.

The poll was conducted before news on Tuesday that inflation in November unexpectedly held at 2.1 percent. That led some analysts to conclude on Tuesday that price pressures will not stand in the way of rate cuts, given that the BoE targets inflation at 2.0 percent on a two-year horizon.

The BoE cut interest rates 25 basis points to 5.50 percent for the first time in over two years earlier this month and is expected to reduce them further next year.

Forty-four of the 49 economists polled said they expected interest rates to fall at least 25 basis points by end-March and 48 see them there or lower by June.  Continued...

 
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