UPDATE 1-Moody's takes rosier view of China
* For analysts' reactions [ID:nSP206950]
* For Moody's text on Hong Kong [ID:nHKG229125]
* For Moody's text on China [ID:nHKG228968]
BEIJING, Nov 9 (Reuters) - A leading ratings agency on Monday gave China a vote of confidence ahead of a visit by U.S. President Barack Obama, praising the government's handling of the economy during the global financial crisis.
Moody's Investors Service said it had changed the outlook for China's A1 credit rating to positive from stable to reflect a "resilient, robust and relatively stable" economic performance and the "negligible" risk of a balance-of-payments meltdown.
Moody's also raised its outlook on Hong Kong's Aa2 rating to positive from stable. Analysts broadly said both moves were justified and came as little surprise.
"The Chinese authorities are successfully steering the economy through the turbulence of the global financial crisis and recession, and furthermore, they seem likely to remain vigilant to protect systemic stability from future threats and challenges," said Tom Byrne, a senior Moody's official.
Whether China wins a higher rating will depend on its continued progress over the next 12-18 months.
"Before we see an actual upgrade following the outlook, the rating agency would need more signs that the recent boom in lending is not going to be followed by a significant rise in non-performing loans. I think this is really the risk for the next two years," said Sebastien Barbe, chief economist for emerging markets at Calyon in Hong Kong. Continued...
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