FACTBOX-What could happen next in Myanmar

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Crowds taunted soldiers and police sealed off the centre of the capital behind barbed-wire barricades on Friday in anticipation of fresh protests against 45 years of military rule in Myanmar and deepening hardship.

The junta's violent response to peaceful demonstrations, despite worldwide calls for restraint, has drawn a chorus of diplomatic protests. Following are possible scenarios for what may happen next in Myanmar.

1988 REVISITED: BRUTAL CRACKDOWN.

The junta relentlessly cracks down on the protesters, with more casualties and mass arrests. The army keeps monks penned up in monasteries. This puts a quick end to the uprising.

The junta, in a sop to international opinion, pledges to get back on track with its "roadmap to democracy".

This is somewhat akin to what happened in the 1988 uprising. The army shot and killed an estimated 3,000 demonstrators throughout the country beginning on August 8, 1988 at the beginning of the "Four Eights" revolt -- and then withdrew from the capital, then called Rangoon, when that action failed to quell the demonstrations.

For the next month, protesters controlled the streets, and leaders such as Aung San Suu Kyi emerged. But on September 18 General Saw Maung seized power and brutally crushed the uprising.

"Unlike 1988, what we have here is leaderless movement," said author Bertil Lintner, a Myanmar expert based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai. "Monks can only mobilise to a certain degree, but they are not political leaders.

"The difference is there's more international attention than in 1988. But the movement is not as strong. The anger is as deep, but in 1988, you had millions across the country rising up with political leadership. This time no."