WEEKAHEAD - the view from Reuters Asia news editors

Sun Nov 15, 2009 11:00pm GMT
[-] Text [+]
 SINGAPORE, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Following is the view from
Reuters Asia editors on the news that is likely to matter most
for the week ahead starting Nov. 16:
 * OBAMA YUAN: Currency, trade in spotlight
 * JAPAN ECONOMY: Risk of double-dip recession?
 * IPO BUZZ: Minsheng, Sands price HK IPOs, Maxis to debut
 * CODELCO-CHINA: Top copper producer, buyer talk premiums
 OBAMA YUAN (Obama in China Nov. 15-18, in Seoul Nov. 18-19;
PBOC chief speaks Nov. 19)
 Currency policy will dominate President Obama's visit to
Beijing and public concessions from his hosts are almost
unthinkable. The Chinese made clear at the APEC summit they had
no intention of losing diplomatic face by appearing to bow to
pressure from Washington and their neighbours, forcing the
group to delete a reference to "market oriented" currencies
from the final statement [ID:nSP43459]. They also don't want to
encourage inflows of speculative capital that would force
Beijing to tighten policy prematurely. Markets seized on the
PBOC report last week that talked of how "major currencies",
not just the sliding dollar, would be a consideration in
guiding yuan policy. While that was a signal of a return to
currency appreciation, not enough has been made of the PBOC's
emphasis on the role of capital flows in the same report. PBOC
chief Zhou Xiaochuan speaks at a business forum on Thursday.
Apart from spot cover of officials dampening market
speculation, we'll run a POLL on the yuan's value and prospects
for convertibility, as well as an ANALYSIS asking whether
markets have gotten ahead of themselves in betting on currency
appreciation.
 Obama's visit will also put trade tensions -- after several
U.S. tariff moves against Chinese-made products -- in the
spotlight, as will climate change.
 Obama leaves China on Wednesday for South Korea, where the
big issues will be North Korean nuclear arms ambitions and the
stalled U.S.-South Korea free trade agreement. [nOBAMAASIA]
 (dayan.candappa@thomsonreuters.com)
 (john.chalmers@thomsonreuters.com)
 > MARKETS WEEKAHEAD-Obama goes to Beijing  [ID:nLD198238]
 > Five key Asia political risk themes to watch  [ID:nSP4984]
 JAPAN ECONOMY (GDP Nov. 16, BOJ review Nov. 19-20)
 Is Japan at risk of a double-dip recession that would
deepen the fiscal crisis? We'll mine July-September GDP data
for answers to that question. Our poll predicts the fastest
growth in six quarters (+0.7%). A minority of analysts still
expect a recession in Q1. Any signs of the weakness in Q3 would
swell their ranks. It would also vindicate the government,
which is baulking at spending cuts in the face of growing
credit market pressure because it fears the economy will
sputter without stimulus. The BOJ, which disagrees with the
government, gets to weigh in on the debate after a policy
review on Friday. We are also looking for any BOJ comment on
the economic impact of rising bond yields. [ID:nECONJP]
 (dayan.candappa@thomsonreuters.com)
 > Five world markets themes this week [MKT/THEMES]
 > Reuters polls and surveys  [ID:nL10903477]
 > Top economic events [M/DIARY]
 IPO BUZZ
 Another busy week of IPO pricing and debuts in Asia. The
region is now the hottest place for companies seeking to raise
funds as the Asian recovery accelerates. Are they cramming in
before the window shuts? The big supply is keeping a lid on
high price hopes and weighing down the market though. We will
take a look at who the real winners and losers are -- which
banks made most money?
 China Minsheng Bank (600016.SS: Quote, Profile, Research), which hopes to raise up to
$4 billion, prices its Honk Kong IPO (Nov. 18). Looking for any
signs of investor indigestion or myopia, steering clear of
market signs and piling into another Chinese IPO. Las Vegas
Sands (LVS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) prices its highly anticipated IPO for its Macau
properties (Nov. 19), after announcing a wide range that could
allow it to raise more than $3 billion to help restart its
stalled Macau resorts. Plan a PREVIEW (Nov. 17) leading up to
the actual pricing [ID:nHKG129668]. Southeast Asia's largest
IPO, Maxis (MXSC.KL: Quote, Profile, Research), will list on the same day (Nov. 19) after
pricing at the mid-range of its asking price and raising $3.3
billion from the share offer. We plan to do a PREVIEW of the
listing and a NEWSMAKER on Ananda Krishnan, the reclusive
billionaire, the day before (Nov. 18).
 (jean.yoon@thomsonreuters.com)
 > Company news diary [GLO/EQUITY]
 CHINA COPPER
 All eyes on the level at which Codelco [CODEL.UL], the
world's top copper producer, will finalise term copper premiums
with China. The Chilean company raised its term premium for
copper to Japan, settling at $75 a tonne for 2010, and at $74
for South Korean buyers, anticipating rising demand in parts of
Asia. Traders say Codelco and Chinese buyers will sit down this
week to talk about premiums, traditionally $5-10 above those in
Japan and South Korea. Codelco President Jose Pablo Arellano
told Reuters last week he expects an economic rebound in the
United States and Europe to support copper MCU3 demand next
year and sees prices in 2010 at above $2 per pound
[ID:nN13441855]. Will Chinese buyers accept a sharp rise in
premiums? It's an opportunity to take another look at Chinese
copper demand, which has been showing signs of bouncing back.
We also plan a POLL on the level at which China might be
willing to accept a deal. Will also run a FACTBOX on how
premiums have fluctuated over the years.
 (sambit.mohanty@thomsonreuters.com)
 > Weekahead Americas [WKAHEAD/AM]
 > Weekahead Europe [WKAHEAD/EM]
 > Index of Reuters diaries [IND/DIARY]
 (Editing by Mathew Veedon)


 
 
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