COMMODITIES-Head for brightest quarter since mid-2008

Tue Mar 31, 2009 8:41am BST
 
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* Commodities set for best quarter since June 2008

* RJ/CRB index down 6 pct YTD, but up from previous 2 qtrs

* Copper up record 40 pct in Shanghai this qtr, 29 pct on LME

* Asia stocks set for best month since 1999, dollar slips

* here

By Ben Tan

SINGAPORE, March 31 (Reuters) - Commodity markets edged up on Tuesday from losses in the previous session, aided by gains in stock markets and a softer dollar, and are heading for their strongest quarterly performance since June last year.

The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index .CRB, which tracks prices across 19 mostly U.S.-traded commodities, is down 6 percent in the first quarter, a possible sign of consolidation after losing 25 percent and 35 percent in the third and fourth quarters of last year.

Shanghai copper futures are charging to a record 40 percent gain in the quarter ending March, while London metal is up 29 percent. Oil's 10 percent rise puts it on course for its largest quarterly gain since June 2008.

The onset of the global financial crisis in the second half of last year prompted jittery investors to seek shelter in safe-haven assets and the dollar, driving down commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

That process may be winding down soon, analysts say.

Asian stocks ticked up on Tuesday and were set to score their biggest monthly rise in a decade as investors bet the most painful stretch of corporate earnings damage may be over, while the dollar slid. [MKTS/GLOB]

"The commodities complex is bottoming. We might still see the odd probe lower, but in general we are long the market," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services.

"We are not 100 percent geared to a recovery yet, but given the mix of fiscal and monetary policy we think we'll see higher inflation and therefore stronger commodity prices."

Oil recouped some of the previous session's 7 percent loss, the market's deepest correction in more than a month, as equities crept up.

By 0446 GMT, U.S. oil for May delivery CLc1 had risen 70 cents to $49.11 a barrel, while London Brent crude LCOc1 was up 70 cents at $50.90. [O/R]

"Oil is being propped up by firmer stocks and a modest rebound in the euro versus the dollar," said Michelle Kwek, an analyst at Informa Global Markets in Singapore.

"But upside momentum back above the $50 levels continues to be lacking amid concerns that imminent bankruptcies in the U.S. auto sector would deepen the crisis, leading to further reduction in global demand."

President Obama on Monday ordered General Motors GM.N and Chrysler to accelerate their turnaround efforts and brace for possible bankruptcy. [ID:nSP207882]

Copper prices rose on hopes that demand from China, the world's biggest buyer of the metal, will likely stay firm well into the next quarter. [MET/L]

Japan's copper exports to China are likely to remain fairly robust until May or June, offsetting a slump at home, the new head of Japan's mining industry association said on Tuesday. [ID:nT348028]

LME copper for delivery in three months MCU3 rose 2.17 percent to $3,995 a tonne while Shanghai June copper SCfc3 rose 1.2 percent to 33,520 yuan a tonne.

Gold XAU was steady on Tuesday, weighed down by a stronger dollar but propped up by worries about the U.S. automakers and the health of the European banking system.

Bullion was at $918.70 per ounce, little changed from New York's notional close of $916.30. [XAU=]

"I am still long-term positive on gold, but that probably goes beyond the second-quarter outlook, probably on a longer-term, 1-2 years outlook," said Adrian Koh, an analyst at Phillip Futures.

Investors remain sensitive to any weak economic data, and the raft of figures due out this week -- including Tuesday's U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence and Wednesday's euro zone February unemployment rate -- could drag commodity prices lower.

The economic fallout from the financial crisis is still taking a big toll on many economies, with data from Japan showing unemployment rising to a three-year high as the country's grapples with its worst recession since World War Two.

Said Phillip Futures' Koh: "Basically, I still think that risk-aversion will still be the factor to look at as I don't think the global economy is out of the doldrums as of yet."

CBOT May soybeans SK9 rose 1.5 percent to $9.17-¾ per bushel after falling to a two-week low on Monday. Wheat for May WK9 rose 0.5 percent to $5.15, while May corn CK9 rose 0.3 percent to $3.87-½ per bushel. [GRA/]

The grains complex was aided by gains in oil prices while soybeans were buoyed by short-covering as investors took positions ahead of a closely watched U.S. plantings and stocks report. (Additional reporting by Chikako Mogi in TOKYO, Fayen Wong in PERTH, Nick Trevethan and Naveen Thukral; Editing by Michael Urquhart)

 

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