Europe, U.S. data point to choppy recovery
By Al Yoon
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The shrinkage in U.S. manufacturing slowed in June, but a gloomy U.S. jobs report and evidence from Europe and Asia suggest a global recovery will be choppy this year, if it occurs at all.
Rising unemployment is emerging as the biggest challenge to a resumption of growth, which governments' around the world are trying to stoke with record low interest rates and by pumping trillions in cash into their economies.
A report of 473,000 U.S. private-sector job losses in June was greater than expected, but less than the 485,000 jobs slashed in May and the smallest number for a month since last October.
The report, by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing (ADP.O: Quote, Profile, Research), precedes the more-widely watched and broader U.S. nonfarm payroll report for June out on Thursday. A Reuters poll of economists forecasts the government's report to show a loss of 363,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 9.6 percent from 9.4 percent in May.
Economic recovery "is just going to be a long process," said Rick Meckler, president of Libertyview Capital Management in New York. "What you are seeing, over and over, is that employment will probably be one of the last things to turn."
With the second half beginning Wednesday, the thesis that the global economy will muster a recovery before 2010 is being put to the test.
U.S. manufacturing contracted for a 17th month in June, albeit at a slower pace, the Institute for Supply Management said on Wednesday. A fourth-straight monthly rise in pending home sales added to hopes a three-year U.S. housing slump would end in 2009.
U.S. auto sales for June underscored how consumers concerned by falling asset values and potential job losses are still holding back on big purchases. Industrywide results of 9.69 million at annual rate for June were weak -- falling short of predictions for a 10-million rate but showing signs of stability in a hard-hit industry compared to recent months. Continued...
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