SCENARIOS-Where to now for Australian carbon trade laws?

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By James Grubel

CANBERRA, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd moved closer to securing his carbon trade laws on Monday after his government agreed to exclude farmers from the scheme, bowing to a key opposition demand.

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong is negotiating with the opposition over amendments to the scheme, designed to end a deadlock in parliament's upper house Senate.

The government wants the package of 11 bills to be passed by the Senate by Nov. 26, when it adjourns for the year, and ahead of global climate talks in Copenhagen in December.

Here are possible outcomes for the bills, which passed the first stage in the lower House of Representatives on Monday. The laws were defeated once already in the Senate in August.

WILL THE LAWS PASS THIS YEAR?

* The chances of the laws passing this year have improved after the government accepted an opposition demand to exclude agriculture from the scheme.

* The government says it is negotiating amendments in good faith, meaning there is still a chance of a deal. But the government wants to make sure any changes do not hurt the budget.