G8 could see climate deal and substance in doubt

By Linda Sieg

TOKYO (Reuters) - G8 leaders could well cobble together some agreement next week on goals to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but bolder progress in climate change talks will probably have to wait until a new U.S president takes office.

Climate change is high on the agenda for the July 7-9 summit in Hokkaido, northern Japan and is the focus of an expanded Major Economies Meeting (MEM) on July 9 that brings the G8 together with eight other countries including China, India and Brazil.

Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda wants to boost momentum for U.N.-led talks on a new framework beyond limits agreed under the Kyoto Protocol, which expire in 2012. Those negotiations are due to conclude in Copenhagen in December next year.

An agreement by 2009 would give certainty to investors wanting to switch to cleaner energy technologies, as well as to participants in growing carbon markets.

The 71-year-old Japanese leader, whose ratings are languishing at around 25 percent on doubts about his leadership, also needs a successful summit to dampen speculation that his party will dump him when the diplomatic pageantry ends.

A general election must be held by late next year.

"The worst scenario is to have no agreement of any kind that the G8 and MEM can explain to the outside world. When leaders meet, you don't do that," Koji Tsuruoka, director general for global issues at Japan's foreign ministry, told Reuters.

"If you come up with a very empty document that says nothing, this would be faulted as the chairman's lack of leadership, although it may not necessarily be the chairman's fault."