TABLE-Reuters Tankan July business confidence survey

Thu Jul 16, 2009 2:02am BST
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 (Click on [JP/TAN1] for main story)
 TOKYO, July 16 (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturer confidence
has improved for four months in a row as exports and industrial
output pick up, but the mood among service-sector firms has
slipped back to near a record low, a Reuters poll showed on
Thursday.
 The rebound in exports and output has fuelled hopes that the
world's second-biggest economy may be recovering from its worst
recession since World War Two, but the Reuters Tankan underscored
the view that weak domestic demand could slow any recovery.
 Following is a table of indexes for key sectors and a
comparison with the BOJ's tankan survey:
                      OCT (f'cast) JULY  JUN   MAY   APR   MAR
 ================================================================
 MANUFACTURERS                (-23)   -43   -50   -69   -76   -78
 ----------------------------------------------------------------
 (Materials)                  (-10)   -34   -39   -68   -84   -87
 - Textile/paper              (-13)   -25   -38   -63   -80   -67
 - Chemicals                  ( +4)   -28   -21   -65   -81   -86
 - Oil refinery/ceramics      (-22)   -33   -50   -67   -89  -100
 - Steel/nonferrous metals    (-60)   -80  -100  -100  -100  -100
 (Manufactured products)      (-30)   -48   -56   -68   -70   -73
 - Food                       (  0)     0     0     0     0     0
 - Metal products/machinery   (-52)   -67   -55   -68   -81   -81
 - Electric machinery         (-24)   -54   -66   -86   -83   -83
 - Autos/transport equipment  (-45)   -45   -69   -88  -100  -100
 - Precision machinery/others (-11)   -40   -67   -67   -44   -78
 ================================================================
 NON-MANUFACTURERS            (-28)   -38   -31   -44   -38   -37
 ----------------------------------------------------------------
 - Real estate/construction   (-36)   -39   -39   -50   -40   -47
 - Retail/wholesale           (-26)   -28   -23   -37   -36   -28
 - Wholesalers                (-18)   -35   -31   -43   -54   -36
 - Retailers                  (-31)   -23   -17   -33   -26   -22
 - Information/communications (-18)   -42   -27   -40   -20   -22
 - Transport/utility          (-38)   -50   -50   -60   -47   -38
 - Other services             (-26)   -44   -26   -42   -44   -44
 ================================================================
 *** COMPARISON WITH BANK OF JAPAN TANKAN ***
 ================================================================
            MANUFACTURERS         NON-MANUFACTURERS
            RTRS     BOJ             RTRS     BOJ
 ----------------------------------------------------------------
 OCT (f'cast)   -23      -               -28      -             
 SEPT(f'cast)    -      -30               -      -21            
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 JULY           -43      -               -38      -             
 JUNE           -50     -48              -31     -29            
 MAY            -69      -               -44      -             
 APR (2009)     -76      -               -38      -
 MAR            -78     -58              -37     -31
 FEB            -74      -               -39      -
 JAN            -76      -               -31      -
 DEC (2008)     -64     -24              -26      -9
 NOV            -42      -               -16      -
 OCT            -25      -                -9      -
 SEPT           -14      -3              -10      +1
 AUG            -16      -                -6      -
 JULY           -10      -                -3      -
 JUNE            -2      +5               -2     +10
 MAY             -2      -                 0      -
 APR             +1      -                +3      -
 MAR             +8     +11               +2     +12
 FEB             +9      -                +2      -
 JAN            +17      -                +1      -
 DEC (2007)     +21     +19              +13     +16
 NOV            +23      -                +9      -
 OCT            +21      -               +19      -
 SEPT           +24     +23              +14     +20
 AUG            +30      -               +14      -
 JUL            +28      -               +19      -
 JUN            +31     +23              +16     +22
 MAY            +29      -               +21      -
 APR            +28      -               +26      -
 MAR            +28     +23              +23     +22
 FEB            +30      -               +20      -
 JAN            +35      -               +23      -
 DEC (2006)     +34     +25              +21     +22
 NOV            +34      -               +22      -
 OCT            +34      -               +20      -
 SEPT           +30     +24              +20     +20
 AUG            +30      -               +22      -
 JUL            +35      -               +24      -
 JUN            +39     +21              +20     +20
 MAY            +35      -               +23      -
 APR            +34      -               +24      -
 MAR            +25     +20              +16     +18
 FEB            +34      -               +17      -
 JAN            +33      -               +22      -
 ================================================================
 ***ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS***
 Q2. Where do you expect the Nikkei to be at the end of July?
                           AVERAGE         HIGHEST      LOWEST
 OVERALL                       9,929          12,000        8,000
 MANUFACTURERS                 9,914          11,500        8,000
 NON-MANUFACTURERS             9,946          12,000        8,500
 ----------------------------------------------------------------
 Q3. Where do you expect the dollar/yen exchange rate to be at
the end of July?
                           AVERAGE        HIGHEST       LOWEST
 OVERALL                       96.53         115.00         86.00
 MANUFACTURERS                 96.57         108.00         89.08
 NON-MANUFACTURERS             96.50         115.00         86.00
 ----------------------------------------------------------------
 Q4. Where do you expect the 10-year Japanese government bond
yield to be at the end of September? (percentage of respondents)
        below    1.2-     1.4-    1.6-    1.8-     2.0-
2.2-     2.4 or
         1.2 %    1.39%    1.59%   1.79%   1.99%    2.19%
 2.39%    above
 ----------------------------------------------------------------
 OVERALL      3       27       54      13       3        0
   0       0
 MANUF'S      3       23       53      18       3        0
   0       0
 NON-MANUF'S  3       31       55       8       4        0
   0       0
 The Reuters Tankan covers 200 large manufacturers and 200
non-manufacturers excluding the financial sector. A total of 244
responded to the first question in the poll taken from June 26 to
July 13.
 The index readings are derived by subtracting the percentage
of respondents who say conditions are poor from those who say
they are good. A negative reading means most of those surveyed
are pessimistic about conditions.
 (For more stories on the Japanese economy, click [ID:nECONJP])
 (Reporting by Izumi Nakagawa)


























 
 
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