TABLE-Reuters Tankan July business confidence survey
(Click on [JP/TAN1] for main story)
TOKYO, July 16 (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturer confidence has improved for four months in a row as exports and industrial output pick up, but the mood among service-sector firms has slipped back to near a record low, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The rebound in exports and output has fuelled hopes that the world's second-biggest economy may be recovering from its worst recession since World War Two, but the Reuters Tankan underscored the view that weak domestic demand could slow any recovery.
Following is a table of indexes for key sectors and a comparison with the BOJ's tankan survey:
OCT (f'cast) JULY JUN MAY APR MAR ================================================================ MANUFACTURERS (-23) -43 -50 -69 -76 -78 ---------------------------------------------------------------- (Materials) (-10) -34 -39 -68 -84 -87 - Textile/paper (-13) -25 -38 -63 -80 -67 - Chemicals ( +4) -28 -21 -65 -81 -86 - Oil refinery/ceramics (-22) -33 -50 -67 -89 -100 - Steel/nonferrous metals (-60) -80 -100 -100 -100 -100 (Manufactured products) (-30) -48 -56 -68 -70 -73 - Food ( 0) 0 0 0 0 0 - Metal products/machinery (-52) -67 -55 -68 -81 -81 - Electric machinery (-24) -54 -66 -86 -83 -83 - Autos/transport equipment (-45) -45 -69 -88 -100 -100 - Precision machinery/others (-11) -40 -67 -67 -44 -78 ================================================================ NON-MANUFACTURERS (-28) -38 -31 -44 -38 -37 ---------------------------------------------------------------- - Real estate/construction (-36) -39 -39 -50 -40 -47 - Retail/wholesale (-26) -28 -23 -37 -36 -28 - Wholesalers (-18) -35 -31 -43 -54 -36 - Retailers (-31) -23 -17 -33 -26 -22 - Information/communications (-18) -42 -27 -40 -20 -22 - Transport/utility (-38) -50 -50 -60 -47 -38 - Other services (-26) -44 -26 -42 -44 -44 ================================================================ *** COMPARISON WITH BANK OF JAPAN TANKAN *** ================================================================
MANUFACTURERS NON-MANUFACTURERS
RTRS BOJ RTRS BOJ ---------------------------------------------------------------- OCT (f'cast) -23 - -28 - SEPT(f'cast) - -30 - -21 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - JULY -43 - -38 - JUNE -50 -48 -31 -29 MAY -69 - -44 - APR (2009) -76 - -38 - MAR -78 -58 -37 -31 FEB -74 - -39 - JAN -76 - -31 - DEC (2008) -64 -24 -26 -9 NOV -42 - -16 - OCT -25 - -9 - SEPT -14 -3 -10 +1 AUG -16 - -6 - JULY -10 - -3 - JUNE -2 +5 -2 +10 MAY -2 - 0 - APR +1 - +3 - MAR +8 +11 +2 +12 FEB +9 - +2 - JAN +17 - +1 - DEC (2007) +21 +19 +13 +16 NOV +23 - +9 - OCT +21 - +19 - SEPT +24 +23 +14 +20 AUG +30 - +14 - JUL +28 - +19 - JUN +31 +23 +16 +22 MAY +29 - +21 - APR +28 - +26 - MAR +28 +23 +23 +22 FEB +30 - +20 - JAN +35 - +23 - DEC (2006) +34 +25 +21 +22 NOV +34 - +22 - OCT +34 - +20 - SEPT +30 +24 +20 +20 AUG +30 - +22 - JUL +35 - +24 - JUN +39 +21 +20 +20 MAY +35 - +23 - APR +34 - +24 - MAR +25 +20 +16 +18 FEB +34 - +17 - JAN +33 - +22 - ================================================================ ***ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS*** Q2. Where do you expect the Nikkei to be at the end of July?
AVERAGE HIGHEST LOWEST OVERALL 9,929 12,000 8,000 MANUFACTURERS 9,914 11,500 8,000 NON-MANUFACTURERS 9,946 12,000 8,500 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Q3. Where do you expect the dollar/yen exchange rate to be at the end of July?
AVERAGE HIGHEST LOWEST OVERALL 96.53 115.00 86.00 MANUFACTURERS 96.57 108.00 89.08 NON-MANUFACTURERS 96.50 115.00 86.00 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Q4. Where do you expect the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to be at the end of September? (percentage of respondents)
below 1.2- 1.4- 1.6- 1.8- 2.0-
2.2- 2.4 or
1.2 % 1.39% 1.59% 1.79% 1.99% 2.19% 2.39% above ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 3 27 54 13 3 0
0 0 MANUF'S 3 23 53 18 3 0
0 0 NON-MANUF'S 3 31 55 8 4 0
0 0
The Reuters Tankan covers 200 large manufacturers and 200 non-manufacturers excluding the financial sector. A total of 244 responded to the first question in the poll taken from June 26 to July 13.
The index readings are derived by subtracting the percentage of respondents who say conditions are poor from those who say they are good. A negative reading means most of those surveyed are pessimistic about conditions. (For more stories on the Japanese economy, click [ID:nECONJP]) (Reporting by Izumi Nakagawa)
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