TABLE-Reuters Tankan business confidence survey (July 2008)
(Click on [JP/TAN1] for main story)
TOKYO, July 17 (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturers' business sentiment hit a fresh five-year low in July as companies felt the pinch from surging energy and raw materials costs and sluggish demand, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday.
The Reuters Tankan, a monthly survey of leading Japanese firms that tracks the Bank of Japan's closely watched tankan quarterly corporate survey, produced an index of minus 10 in July for manufacturers, down from minus 2 in June.
It was the lowest reading since April 2003 when it was at minus 11, the survey taken from June 27 to July 14 showed.
The sentiment index for the country's service sector edged down to minus 3 -- the lowest since December 2003 -- from minus 2 the previous month.
Following is a table of indexes for key sectors and a comparison with the BOJ's tankan survey:
OCT JULY JUNE MAY APR MAR FEB
(f'cast) ============================================================================= MANUFACTURERS ( -3) -10 -2 -2
+1 +8 +9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Materials) (-13) -18 -7 -6
-5 -3 +3 - Textile/paper (-10) -30 -10 -10 -18 -22 -29 - Chemicals (-11) -11 0 0
0 +5 +18 - Oil refinery/ceramics (-29) -29 -18 -20
-9 -11 -20 - Steel/nonferrous metals ( 0) 0 0 0 +20 +17 +20 (Manufactured products) ( +3) -5 0 +1
+5 +14 +13 - Food (-11) -11 +13 +13 +11 +11 +13 - Metal products/machinery ( 0) -13 -14 -5
+5 +16 +5 - Electric machinery (+14) +14 +13 0
0 +8 +13 - Autos/transport equipment ( 0) -25 +11 -14 +10 +22 +22 - Precision machinery/others ( 0) -9 -18 +18
+8 +20 +18 ============================================================================= NON-MANUFACTURERS ( 0) -3 -2 0
+3 +2 +2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Real estate/construction (-15) -19 -29 -20 -19 -12 -18 - Retail/wholesale ( -6) -6 -3 0
0 +3 -9 + Wholesalers ( 0) 0 +14 -7
+7 -7 -13 + Retailers (-11) -11 -15 +5
-6 +12 -5 - Information/communications (+20) +10 0 +22 +22 +10 +20 - Transport/utility ( 0) +15 +23 +12 +25 +17 +20 - Other services (+11) 0 +4 0
+4 0 +15 ============================================================================= *** COMPARISON WITH BANK OF JAPAN TANKAN *** =======================================================
MANUFACTURERS NON-MANUFACTURERS
RTRS BOJ RTRS BOJ ------------------------------------------------------- OCT (Forecast) -3 - 0 - SEP (Forecast) - +4 - +8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - JULY -10 - -3 - JUNE -2 +5 -2 +10 MAY -2 - 0 - APR +1 - +3 - MAR +8 +11 +2 +12 FEB +9 - +2 - JAN +17 - +1 - DEC (2007) +21 +19 +13 +16 NOV +23 - +9 - OCT +21 - +19 - SEP +24 +23 +14 +20 AUG +30 - +14 - JUL +28 - +19 - JUN +31 +23 +16 +22 MAY +29 - +21 - APR +28 - +26 - MAR +28 +23 +23 +22 FEB +30 - +20 - JAN +35 - +23 - DEC (2006) +34 +25 +21 +22 NOV +34 - +22 - OCT +34 - +20 - SEP +30 +24 +20 +20 AUG +30 - +22 - JUL +35 - +24 - JUN +39 +21 +20 +20 MAY +35 - +23 - APR +34 - +24 - MAR +25 +20 +16 +18 FEB +34 - +17 - JAN +33 - +22 - DEC (2005) +32 +21 +20 +17 NOV +27 - +21 - OCT +15 - +25 - SEP +20 +19 +19 +15 AUG +16 - +17 - JUL +16 - +18 - JUN +20 +18 +17 +15 MAY +23 - +16 - APR +18 - +16 - MAR +18 +14 +16 +11 FEB + 9 - +19 - JAN +17 - +15 - DEC (2004) +15 +22 +14 +11 NOV +21 - +19 - OCT +19 - +19 - SEP +26 +26 +20 +11 AUG +30 - +27 - JUL +28 - +17 - JUN +27 +22 +15 +9 MAY +31 - +10 - APR +23 - +12 - MAR +21 +12 +6 +5 FEB +15 - +4 - JAN +4 - +1 - ======================================================= ***ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS*** Q2. Where do you expect the Nikkei to be at the end of August?
AVERAGE HIGHEST LOWEST OVERALL 13,722 15,000 11,250 MANUFACTURERS 13,809 15,000 12,500 NON-MANUFACTURERS 13,629 15,000 11,250 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Q3. Where do you expect the dollar/yen exchange rate to be at the end of August?
AVERAGE HIGHEST LOWEST OVERALL 106.34 110.58 100.00 MANUFACTURERS 106.29 110.03 100.00 NON-MANUFACTURERS 106.39 110.58 100.00 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Q4. Where do you expect the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to be at the end of September? (percentage of respondents)
below 1.0- 1.2- 1.4- 1.6- 1.8-
2.0- over
1 % 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%
2.2% 2.2% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 1 1 6 21 54 14
1 1 MANUF'S 0 3 6 19 52 18
2 1 NON-MANUF'S 2 0 7 22 57 10
1 1
The Reuters Tankan covers 200 manufacturers and 200 non-manufactures. A total of 216 responded to the first question between June 27 and July 14.
Formerly known as the Telerate Tankan, it was renamed after the acquisition of Quick Moneyline Telerate Corp by Reuters Group Plc RTR.L. (Reporting by Shigeo Kodama, Writing by Tetsushi Kajimoto)
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