SNAP ANALYSIS - Sudan's Darfur ceasefire leaves big doubts

By Andrew Heavens

KHARTOUM (Reuters) - Sudan's promise of a cease-fire in Darfur Wednesday left doubts as to whether it would help bring peace or improve President Omar Hassan al-Bashir's chances of avoiding a possible indictment for alleged war crimes there.

* The overriding question is whether Sudan is sincere. Jaded Darfuris have seen past ceasefires fizzle while the fighting continues in Sudan's remote west. Rebels said the last big cease-fire, announced before 2007 peace talks in Libya, was broken days later when government planes bombed their positions.

* Observers say powerful figures in the dominant National Congress Party still believe they can win the Darfur conflict through military means. Any cease-fire would have to hold for several months before it started to gain credibility.

* Although President Bashir said the decision did not come with any strings attached, he added that it would come into force "provided an effective monitoring mechanism be put into action and observed by all involved parties."

* That might seem like a technicality, but U.N. officials privately admit there is no effective international cease-fire monitoring system in place in Darfur, even though one was supposed to have been set up under a failed 2006 peace deal. Diplomats wonder whether this could provide a loophole to allow hostilities to continue.

* The swift rebel rejection of Bashir's announcement made it even less likely that the cease-fire will hold.

* Darfur rebel groups have been making new alliances and building up forces in recent months. An unprecedented attack on Khartoum by JEM rebels in May also suggested they have secured fresh funding. In a sign of their strength, rebels have attacked government patrols venturing into their territories.

* Even if the army and rebels agreed to stop fighting, that still leaves scores of small armed groups in Darfur who are only interested in looting and armed robbery. They would not be bound by the cease-fire. Camps for displaced Darfuris are also increasingly militarised, posing another problem.