SCENARIOS -Thailand's crisis - where does it head next?

By Ed Cropley and Nopporn Wong-Anan

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's Constitutional Court is expected to meet on Tuesday to decide whether to dissolve the ruling People Power Party (PPP) for vote fraud in a December 2007 election.

All politicians and analysts expect the verdict to go against Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, plunging the country into a fresh round of chaos and raising the prospect of a violent backlash by government supporters.

The following scenarios, based on comments from analysts, political players and media reports, look at how things might pan out:

CONSTITUTIONAL PARALYSIS

- An adverse court ruling will see Somchai and many cabinet ministers barred from politics for five years.

However, most rank-and-file PPP MPs will escape the ban and simply switch to Puea Thai (For Thailand), a "shell" party already lined up for just such an eventuality.

An election will not necessarily ensue.

As long as the six-party ruling coalition hangs together -- and so far it has shown no signs of cracking -- Puea Thai will have the parliamentary numbers needed to choose a new prime minister and thereby form the next administration.