Retail convention likely to be a survival course

By Martinne Geller

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Several months ago the National Retail Federation (NRF) chose "Inspiration" as a theme for its 2009 annual convention, to be held next week in New York. But now it seems "Survival" might have been a better choice.

As U.S. consumers grapple with a year-long slump, rising unemployment and falling home values, the retail industry is struggling to attract shoppers and preserve profits.

Major retailers, from Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) to Macy's Inc (M.N), have cut their profit forecasts, trimmed staff or shuttered stores. Some, like Circuit City Stores Inc (CCTYQ.PK), have sought bankruptcy protection, and many more are seen as vulnerable this year.

The economy is "probably going to be the No. 1, 2 and 3 issue" at the convention, Tracy Mullin, the trade group's chief executive, said in an interview. "That's all anybody's going to be talking about, I guarantee you."

The retail industry's biggest trade show normally attracts several thousand retailers as well as vendors that sell them services like computing, staffing, consulting and security.

Citing the current climate, Mullin said fewer guests are paying full price to join the discussions and more seek only the free pass to the expo floor.

"We think we may be down slightly, but not by much," Mullin said of attendance, noting a desire of retailers to commiserate. "They like to share experiences and find out if there are actually people doing worse than they are."

The NRF will release its final 2008 sales figures and summary of the holiday season on Wednesday, but it will not issue a forecast for the current year at the show, as it usually does.