SCENARIOS: Sagging PM popularity threatens Japan ruling bloc

By Linda Sieg

TOKYO (Reuters) - In another sign of unpopular Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso's fading clout as he struggles with a recession ahead of an election the ruling bloc could well lose, an ex-cabinet minister left the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Tuesday in protest against his policies.

Below are some scenarios for how the political story could play out over coming months.

ASO'S BEST BET?

Aso has all but ruled out an early snap election, saying that passing a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year to March 31 and the budget for 2009/10 must come first.

Analysts say he hopes to push the budgets and bills needed to implement the spending through parliament despite anticipated delaying tactics by opposition parties, which control the upper house, and then call an election in late April or May.

Budgets automatically become law 30 days after approval by the lower house even without a vote by the upper chamber, but related bills, if rejected there, would need to be approved by a two-thirds majority of the lower house to take effect.

The LDP and its junior coalition partner the New Komeito currently hold two-thirds of the lower house's 480 seats, so if Aso can control internal squabbling in the LDP and keep the New Komeito on board the budget bills can be enacted, clearing the way for him to call the election.

INDECISION AND DELAY