Winners and losers from Russia gas deal

By Michael Stott - Analysis

MOSCOW (Reuters) - An overnight outline deal struck by the prime ministers of Russia and Ukraine aims to restore gas supplies to eastern Europe, crippled since January 7 in a dispute between Moscow and Kiev over prices.

Following is a look at who stands to win and lose from the dispute and its apparent resolution:

RUSSIA has seen its reputation as a reliable energy supplier severely dented by the episode. But the Kremlin is likely to have calculated that with Europe dependent for years to come on its gas and unable to find alternatives quickly, it can afford to temporarily upset some European nations in the hope of gaining higher long-term prices for its gas, a key export.

The worst affected nations lay in central and south-eastern Europe while major European powers Germany, France and Italy -- Russia's key trade partners -- were less badly hit.

If the deal holds, Moscow appears to have secured its long-cherished dream of forcing Ukraine to pay more than twice as much for its gas. The draft deal pledges Kiev to pay European-level gas prices, albeit with a 20 percent discount this year.

There are other long-term advantages for Russia.

Other former Soviet states will think long and hard before arguing when Russia imposes full European market prices on them; the Kremlin is in no mood for compromise and has shown yet again that -- as with the Georgia war last summer -- it does not mind angering the West in order to advance its own agenda.

If the deal holds, Russian gas giant GAZPROM will earn billions of dollars of extra revenue in coming years, more than making up for what it lost at the start of this year.