Barack Obama, Greta Garbo and China's trade surplus

By Alan Wheatley, China Economics Editor - Analysis

BEIJING (Reuters) - When Barack Obama tackles China on its trade surplus, as surely he will, Beijing will be tempted to invoke the actress Greta Garbo: "I want to be left alone."

As a nascent superpower, China insists on global attention for its political views. On shaping currency and trade policy, by contrast, Beijing has largely stood aloof, content to punch below the weight of what is now the world's third-largest economy.

But 2009 could be the year in which the Garbo defense ceases to be an option. For as much as China might like to keep below the incoming U.S. president's economic radar, there is a growing consensus among experts that a rebalancing of the international economy -- with a central role for China -- can wait no longer.

With the West deep in recession, these experts fear that unless Beijing gets serious about reducing its supersized trade surplus, the China-bashing that was largely held in check during President George W. Bush's eight years in office could finally burst forth into trade and currency wars.

"This year and perhaps for some time to come, trade problems will be an expanding area of friction between China and the United States," Cui Liru, president of the China Institute of Contemporary International Research, an influential think-tank in Beijing, told Globe magazine.

It is China's trade figures for November and December that have set the alarm bells ringing.

Imports fell much faster than exports, underlining the weakness of China's domestic consumption and reinforcing its position as a net supplier of goods to the rest of the world. In emotive words, China is "stealing growth" from others.

"With the world economy struggling as global demand slows, this adds to the risk that trade tensions will worsen between China and its trading partners this year," said Mark Williams, an economist with Capital Economics in London.