Shell and BP Q4 profits seen hit by crude collapse

By Tom Bergin

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil majors including Royal Dutch Shell and BP are expected to announce the end of a four-year run of record-breaking earnings over the coming weeks, after crude prices collapsed from over $100/bbl during the fourth quarter.

Analysts believe the big international oil companies will be forced to curb generous dividend rises, rein in soaring investment spending and may even cut back on jobs, after four years of complaining of difficulties in finding staff.

A Reuters poll of six analysts gave an average forecast of $4.1 billion (3 billion pounds) for Shell's fourth-quarter earnings next Thursday -- a 40 percent drop compared to the same period in 2007.

However, bumper profits earlier in the year on the back of the ramp up of oil prices to over $147/bbl mean the world's second-largest non-government controlled oil company is expected to yet again break annual earnings records for a European company.

Full-year net profit is forecast at $30.6 billion, beating the record the Hague-based company set in 2007 of $27.6 billion.

London-based BP was predicted to post fourth-quarter net profit of $2.98 billion - in line with the same period in 2007, when it suffered a big loss due to problems at its U.S. refining business.

This would generate full-year results of $26.5 billion, over 50 percent up on the 2007 result of $17.3 billion, thanks in part to improved performance at the troubled U.S. refining unit.

The drop in oil prices is expected to also hit companies such as France's Total, Italy's Eni and U.S. oil majors Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp.