Experts say much rides on North Korea rocket

By Jim Wolf

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea would demonstrate an ability to hit much of the United States with a long-range missile if it succeeds in launching a satellite in space, the former head of the U.S. Missile Defence Agency said on Friday.

"If they have a successful Taepodong-2 space launch shot they should be able to range most of northwestern United States, including Alaska and Hawaii, as well as part of the mainland, even with a two-stage missile," said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, who ran U.S. missile-Defence development until January 1.

Much depends on whether Pyongyang has succeeded in developing advanced propellants for the rocket that satellite images show it is readying to launch as soon as Saturday.

South Korea and Japan have said the North's declared goal -- sending a communications satellite into orbit -- is mere cover for a test of the long-range Taepodong-2 missile.

A similar missile blew apart about 40 seconds after launch in July 2006.

If the North successfully puts a satellite in space using a three-stage missile, as many experts predict it will try to do, "they would be able to range about half of the continental United States," Obering said. "And with advanced propellants ... they could range all of the United States."

"That's one of the reasons that we have our ears up and (are) very alert -- because it's a major step forward," he told a briefing organized by the Missile Defence Advocacy Alliance, a grass-roots- and industry-funded group that backs a layered anti-missile shield the Bush administration began deploying in 2004.

The extent of North Korea's mastery of advanced rocket propellants was uncertain at the time he left the U.S. government, Obering said. "But we do know that they have demonstrated the ability to go beyond the basic SCUD-propellant technology from the 1980s."