SCENARIOS: How will Somali-American pirate standoff end?

By Andrew Cawthorne

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Somali pirates have captured their first American hostage, a cargo ship's captain.

They and their prisoner are drifting on a lifeboat without fuel, and are being tracked by a U.S. warship and other naval vessels in the area.

How will the saga end?

NEGOTIATED SOLUTION?

* The four pirates holding ship captain Richard Phillips are drifting on a lifeboat from the Maersk Alabama freighter, which they briefly hijacked on Wednesday before the 20-man American crew regained control. They have guns, but are without fuel, and it is not clear how much food and water they have.

* So despite having Phillips, the pirates are still in a precarious situation. Friends in contact with the gang say they want a ransom. But Washington may not want to set a precedent by paying one, and would be more likely to promise them safe passage home if they release their hostage.

* The USS Bainbridge, a naval destroyer, is near the lifeboat and the FBI is involved in negotiations.

* Somali pirates are always motivated by financial gain, and generally treat hostages relatively well. Former hostages speak of being fed goat meat and allowed to phone relatives.