Brown stumbles towards election defeat

By Adrian Croft - Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - If political history is any guide, Gordon Brown is heading for certain defeat in a general election next year.

Economic and political blows are raining down on the Labour prime minister, eroding his authority by the day and increasing the similarities with the plight of John Major, leader of the Conservative government swept away by Labour in 1997.

Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's cut its outlook on Britain to negative on Thursday, leading the Conservatives to renew their attacks on his economic policies just as the prime minister struggles to contain the damage from a scandal over politicians' expenses.

Labour is polling in the low 20s percent, around 16 points behind the Conservatives who are increasingly confident they can return to power.

"I don't think there is any other outcome than a Labour defeat," said Neil Carter, politics professor at York University. "At the moment the only thing open to discussion is the size of the Conservative majority."

Comparisons with the situation a year before the end of the Conservatives' 18 years in power back up this point of view.

In local elections in May 1996, 12 months before the general election, Labour polled 43 percent to the Conservatives' 27 -- a 16-point lead but a smaller one than opinion polls were showing.

Major left calling that general election until the last moment and Brown looks certain to repeat this stance in the hope of some form of political redemption -- May 2010 looks the most likely election date.