With little leverage, U.S. looks to China on North Korea

By Arshad Mohammed and Paul Eckert - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Responding to another North Korean nuclear test, the United States must again hope China will put pressure on Pyongyang, despite its fear of destabilizing its isolated neighbour.

The North's second test, which appeared in early reports to be much more powerful than its first in 2006, forces the United States to acknowledge that its leverage over the poor, secretive and unpredictable state is at best limited.

Analysts of U.S. policy towards Pyongyang, including several who have dealt with the problem themselves at the White House, say U.S. President Barack Obama and his aides have little choice but to try to enlist Beijing's influence on Pyongyang.

That may be difficult when Washington already needs Beijing's help to grapple with other major challenges such as climate change and the global financial crisis.

"The administration is going to have to find ways to make China uncomfortable again," said Michael Green, a former White House national security council official who dealt with North Korea under U.S. President George W. Bush.

"The reality is that to put pressure on North Korea they have to put pressure on China," said Green, now at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

Secure Chinese support may be even harder because Beijing's fears of a collapse of the North Korean state and a flood of refugees across its border have been accentuated by North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's ill health and the resulting jockeying to succeed him.

Analysts believe that Kim, thought to be recovering from a serious illness, has picked his third and youngest known son, Kim Jong-un, to succeed him in what is often called the world's most secretive state.