Recession may worsen left/right revolts

By William Maclean, Security Correspondent

LONDON (Reuters) - Insurgencies rooted in the traditional left/right political divide are re-emerging around the world and economic downturn may accelerate the trend, a security consultancy said Tuesday.

Craig Preston, executive director at Aon Crisis Management, said a global survey of guerrilla violence since January 1, 2007 showed improved Western counter-terrorism had made "operating conditions" for Islamist armed groups more difficult.

However, some long-established revolts in Asia, Latin America and Europe with more traditional ideological origins were reviving after periods in abeyance, according to the survey of attacks, plots, rebel communiques and government counter-measures.

"Our analysis shows the re-emergence of groups like the communist Shining Path in Peru and a revolutionary anarchist movement in Greece," said Preston, presenting the main points of the study in an online briefing for journalists.

"In a global recession it is not inconceivable that a new generation of terrorists will emerge from disaffected communities in a re-emergence of class-based politics.

"This raises the prospect of new terrorist groups forming in the developed world on the far right and far left of the ideological spectrum. With the election of a more liberal president in the U.S., it is possible we may see an uplift in activity from domestic far-right and militia groups."

REVIVAL OF REVOLTS

Although it did not specifically assess political risk, the survey echoed findings by other research groups that said global recession would make the world more unstable and violent and widen opportunities for transnational criminal groups.