SCENARIOS: Possible outcomes of Honduran political crisis

Mon Jun 29, 2009 10:58pm BST
 
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TEGUCIGALPA (Reuters) - Honduras was rocked by its worst political crisis in decades and internationally isolated after the army ousted leftist President Manuel Zelaya and former Congress head Roberto Micheletti was named interim president.

Sunday's dawn ouster came after Zelaya angered the courts, Congress and the military with his push to extend presidential terms.

Following are possible scenarios on what could develop:

MICHELETTI STAYS IN POWER UNTIL AFTER NOV. ELECTIONS

Micheletti's supporters, from the political and business elite to the army and courts, are intent on him retaining control though a November 29 presidential election and into January when the poll winner is due to take power.

This could happen if the small street protests over the coup wilt and the United States and other countries believe they have few options other than sanctions or cutting economic aid, which so far Washington has held off from doing.

Zelaya's popularity ratings had dropped to around 30 percent in recent polls, as many disliked his shift to the left under the influence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Protests on the streets of Honduras against his ouster have only numbered up to a couple of thousand people.

It would be much easier for foreign countries to demand Micheletti stand down if he were an army general, but counting in his favor, Micheletti is a civilian veteran of Zelaya's Liberal Party and he was chosen on Sunday by a near-unanimous Congress vote.

Micheletti, who has already told foreign countries not to interfere in Honduras, could take a swing to the right and crush opponents.  Continued...

 

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