Ex-bodyguard's opposition seen winning Bulgaria poll

By Anna Mudeva and Tsvetelia Ilieva

SOFIA (Reuters) - Bulgaria's opposition centre-right GERB party was set to win most seats in Sunday's parliamentary election, increasing the prospect of reforms to combat widespread corruption and prevent a financial crisis.

Angry about a painful recession and the government's failure to end a climate of impunity for politicians and crime bosses, Bulgarians punished the ruling Socialists, who looked set to lose around half of their seats.

The GERB, led by former bodyguard and now Sofia mayor Boiko Borisov, 50, campaigned on a promise to attack the deep-seated graft that prompted the European Union last year to cut aid pending tougher action on corruption.

Fresh exit polls by Sova Harris and Alpha Research suggested GERB would take 118-120 seats in the 240-strong chamber, compared with 39-41 seats for the ruling Socialists.

If confirmed, the results would give Borisov a shot at forming a government with a grouping of rightist parties, the Blue Coalition, a partnership observers say has the best chance of addressing graft and vital economic reforms. Both groupings have signalled readiness to join forces.

"This is a clear victory for the rightist parties," said Georgi Angelov, economist at Open Society Institute in Sofia.

"This means complete, not minor change. It will help restore the trust of the European Union and foreign investors, which will cushion the impact of the global economic crisis."

The ex-communist nation of 7.6 million, which joined the EU in 2007 and is the bloc's poorest member, in 2008 lost access to over half a billion euros ($700 million) in EU funds as punishment for graft.