SCENARIOS - Ousted Honduran president threatens to return

TEGUCIGALPA (Reuters) - Honduras' political foes are on a collision course after negotiations collapsed and exiled President Manuel Zelaya vowed to return home despite arrest warnings from a defiant de facto government.

The failure of talks mediated by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias has raised fears of violence in Honduras.

Here are some scenarios on how the crisis could play out:

STANDOFF DRAGS ON

The stalemate could persist, with Zelaya remaining in exile and the interim leader holding out until scheduled elections on November 29, which Micheletti says will go ahead.

Arias, a Nobel Peace Prize winner with experience in solving Central American conflicts, asked both sides to give him until Wednesday to broker a solution to the crisis after two-days of closed-door meetings ended in stalemate.

Governments around the world have called for Zelaya's return to power and are increasingly shunning the interim government of Roberto Micheletti, who was appointed by Honduras' Congress after the coup. But Micheletti said on Monday he would never agree to allow Zelaya's reinstatement.

Multinational lenders halted aid programs to the impoverished country soon after the coup and the United States suspended $16.5 million (9.97 million pounds) in military assistance to Honduras but has so far stopped short of harsher economic sanctions.

Without serious pressure from the United States, Honduras' No. 1 trading partner, Micheletti may have little incentive to step down since he has the backing of the country's Congress, Supreme Court, military and some business leaders.