Tories seen 75 percent likely to win election

By Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent

LONDON (Reuters) - The Conservatives have a 75 percent chance of winning a parliamentary election next year, analysts polled by Reuters said.

Reuters polled 21 financial and economic analysts looking at Britain as well as 11 academics and political risk specialists looking at national politics.

They were asked to rate the probability of four potential outcomes, assuming the election took place in May.

Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown must call a general election between now and June 2010.

With his party trailing badly in opinion polls, Britain suffering its longest recession since records began, and a public deficit ballooning, he faces an uphill battle to extend his party's 12 years in power beyond next year.

The median average forecast was a 48 percent chance of a Conservative win greater than Labour's current working majority of 62, and a 28 percent likelihood of a Conservative victory with a narrower majority.

The analysts gave Labour a 10 percent chance of securing a majority, and saw a 15 percent chance of a "hung parliament" in which neither of the two main parties would hold an overall majority, prompting either a coalition or a minority government.

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